Secular News

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

81158482

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2040

Before January 2030

Before January 2029

Before January 2028

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

Before January 2027

Before January 2026

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

Predictions about Syria in 2026

Dec 9, 10:54 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

292009

OptionProbability

Will Syria be Democratic?

Will Syria be split into more than one state/nation?

Will Syria be Secular?

Will Syria experience a genocide?

Will war on the Christmas be won in 2025?

Feb 6, 3:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64.04%chance

161672

OptionVotes

YES

1335

749

Will the world become more secular in the next World Values Survey?

Sep 26, 5:33 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

73.93%chance

25918

OptionVotes

YES

1011

984

Is the downward secular trend in female puberty mostly genetic?

Apr 8, 2:58 AMApr 9, 6:59 AM

10.05%chance

12376

OptionVotes

YES

1330

926

Will "Secular" be officially removed from the Preamble to the Constitution of India before 2028?

Jan 24, 5:06 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

19.27%chance

10368

OptionVotes

YES

1204

930

Will "[Fiction] [Comic] Effective Altruism and Rati..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 9, 1:18 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

75%chance

11348

OptionVotes

YES

150

Will Protestant and English-speaking countries become even more individualistic in the next World Values Survey?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

78.72%chance

10198

OptionVotes

YES

1103

957

Will "General Thoughts on Secular Solstice" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Mar 26, 9:34 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

6.13%chance

3130

OptionVotes

YES

290

147

Will any head of state/government proclaim that they are the rightful heir to a defunct historical dynasty in 2025?

Feb 13, 11:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.43%chance

990

OptionVotes

YES

129

Will the causal factors for the global secular decline in men's testosterone levels become clear by 2028?

May 25, 4:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.66%chance

783

OptionVotes

YES

119

100

Will there be more than 500,000,000 religious Buddhists worldwide on 1st January 2030?

Mar 24, 11:49 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.44%chance

OptionVotes

YES

125

115

Secular News

Prediction markets for Secular

Prediction markets for Secular

Prediction markets for Secular

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Predictions about Syria in 2026

Will war on the Christmas be won in 2025?

Will the world become more secular in the next World Values Survey?

Is the downward secular trend in female puberty mostly genetic?

Will "Secular" be officially removed from the Preamble to the Constitution of India before 2028?

Will "[Fiction] [Comic] Effective Altruism and Rati..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will Protestant and English-speaking countries become even more individualistic in the next World Values Survey?

Will "General Thoughts on Secular Solstice" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Will any head of state/government proclaim that they are the rightful heir to a defunct historical dynasty in 2025?

Will the causal factors for the global secular decline in men's testosterone levels become clear by 2028?

Will there be more than 500,000,000 religious Buddhists worldwide on 1st January 2030?

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