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Prediction markets for Securities Regulator

Will Mexico still host all of the planned FIFA World Cup games this year?

Feb 25, 3:58 AMJul 20, 10:59 PM

87.09%chance

544094

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10078

9989

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.17%chance

112322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1724

580

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63%chance

202212

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1307

768

When will the TSA update their security regulations to permit carrying liquid bottles over 300ml on commercial flights ?

Jan 26, 10:51 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

342027

OptionProbability

Other

2026

2032

2030

2031

2040

2036

2037

2025

2034

2038

2039

2028

2035

2027

2029

2033

2024

11

10

8

7

7

7

6

6

5

5

5

5

4

4

3

3

3

1

Jane Street guilty of Indian market manipulation or settles for $100M+?

Jul 5, 11:39 AMJul 6, 11:33 AM

41.63%chance

242019

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1184

845

Will the U.S. government attempt to restrict VPN usage before January 1st, 2030?

Aug 9, 3:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.75%chance

31920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

883

US-UK Tech Prosperity Deal reinstated during Q1 2026

Jan 3, 5:25 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

15.4%chance

10810

OptionVotes

YES

NO

692

145

Will FIFA cancel the soccer matches in Jalisco?

Feb 23, 5:54 PMJul 19, 11:59 PM

39.87%chance

12177

OptionVotes

YES

NO

123

81

Will the UK introduce compulsory English lessons for adult migrants receiving public benefits before 2027?

Jul 21, 10:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

9166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

When will Volodymyr Zelenskyy announce national elections?

Mar 2, 1:04 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

6151

OptionProbability

Announces elections contingent on ceasefire only

April 15 - May 4, 2026 (before martial law expires)

May 4 - June 30, 2026

July 1 - December 31, 2026

January 1 - June 30, 2027

July 1, 2027 or later

Never announces national elections

Other

March 15 - April 15, 2026

Before March 15, 2026

48

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

5

4

DeepMind's DiLoCo - how big of a blow to compute governance?

Jan 5, 11:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.34%chance

399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

49

Will the US require hardware security features on cutting-edge chips by 2028?

Apr 28, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.26%chance

453

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

63

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