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Prediction markets for Securities Regulator

Is Cassava ($SAVA) fraudulent...

Aug 31, 3:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1039528

OptionProbability

Yes, and Simufilam is too

No, and Simufilam doesn't work

Yes, but Simufilam works

No, and Simufilam works

90

29

0

0

Will Manifold Markets be blocked in Brazil before 2026?

Sep 20, 4:59 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

10%chance

92575

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2598

88

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.74%chance

112283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1614

620

When will the TSA update their security regulations to permit carrying liquid bottles over 300ml on commercial flights ?

Jan 26, 10:51 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

342027

OptionProbability

Other

2026

2032

2030

2031

2040

2036

2037

2025

2034

2038

2039

2028

2035

2027

2029

2033

2024

11

10

8

7

7

7

6

6

5

5

5

5

4

4

3

3

3

1

Jane Street guilty of Indian market manipulation or settles for $100M+?

Jul 5, 11:39 AMJul 6, 11:33 AM

38.7%chance

231969

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

795

Will the U.S. government attempt to restrict VPN usage before January 1st, 2030?

Aug 9, 3:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.75%chance

31920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

883

Will the US conduct a nuclear test before 2030?

Oct 30, 2:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.29%chance

11334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

167

60

Chip Security Act becomes law in 2025

May 16, 10:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.53%chance

5217

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

48

Will the UK introduce compulsory English lessons for adult migrants receiving public benefits before 2027?

Jul 21, 10:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

9166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

DeepMind's DiLoCo - how big of a blow to compute governance?

Jan 5, 11:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.34%chance

399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

49

Will the US require hardware security features on cutting-edge chips by 2028?

Apr 28, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.26%chance

453

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

63

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