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Prediction markets for Securities Regulator

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.7%chance

3134762

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25099

3984

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job loss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.52%chance

3826421

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1294

776

When will the TSA update their security regulations to permit carrying liquid bottles over 300ml on commercial flights ?

Jan 26, 10:51 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

364501

OptionProbability

Other

2030

2031

2032

2026

2040

2036

2037

2039

2034

2035

2038

2028

2033

2027

2029

2024

2025

12

8

8

8

7

7

6

6

6

5

5

5

4

4

3

3

1

1

Jane Street guilty of Indian market manipulation or settles for $100M+?

Jul 5, 11:39 AMJul 6, 11:33 AM

30.12%chance

312983

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1523

657

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.06%chance

122452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1729

578

Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026?

Jun 26, 10:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.1%chance

262110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1825

548

Will a cruise ship be sunk by terrorists or a state military force by the end of 2027?

Apr 4, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.89%chance

111019

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

987

Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027?

Jun 27, 9:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.89%chance

10995

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1933

517

Will the U.S. government attempt to restrict VPN usage before January 1st, 2030?

Aug 9, 3:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.75%chance

31920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

883

When will a cyberattack cause a major U.S. bank or brokerage to lose its records of customer assets?

Aug 11, 1:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9342

OptionProbability

Before 2033

Before 2032

Before 2029

Before 2030

Before 2031

Before 2028

Before 2027

58

57

56

55

55

47

18

When will Volodymyr Zelenskyy announce national elections?

Mar 2, 1:04 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

9307

OptionProbability

Announces elections contingent on ceasefire only

July 1 - December 31, 2026

January 1 - June 30, 2027

July 1, 2027 or later

Other

Never announces national elections

March 15 - April 15, 2026

April 15 - May 4, 2026 (before martial law expires)

May 4 - June 30, 2026

Before March 15, 2026

45

7

7

7

7

6

5

5

5

4

Mercado Pago bank before 2027?

Oct 24, 5:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64%chance

374

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

75

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