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Prediction markets for security

When will Viva.city secure a special jurisdiction?

Jul 31, 2:44 AMJan 1, 3:43 AM

918058

OptionProbability

2028 or later

2027

2026

2025

74

15

8

3

Will any veto rights for EUs Common Foreign and Security Policy be removed during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

May 18, 4:09 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM

27.47%chance

42166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1625

615

SOAI#4: A deepfake/agent-driven cyber attack triggers the first NATO/UN emergency debate on AI security

Oct 9, 11:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.99%chance

302059

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1733

577

Will social security go bankrupt by 2030?

Apr 23, 2:45 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

11.02%chance

241959

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1369

923

Will I still feel that it is important to protect my social security number (SSN) in 2050?

Apr 5, 4:33 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

46.49%chance

341882

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

936

Will Armenia withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) by the end of 2027?

Oct 26, 4:29 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

79.7%chance

141295

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

977

Will Social Security become insolvent before 2040?

Jun 28, 4:48 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.91%chance

121081

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1336

748

Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?

Feb 29, 1:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

321030

OptionProbability

1password

Bitwarden

57

43

Will Vitalik Buterin or the Ethereum Foundation be charged by the SEC with selling unregistered securities by the end of 2030?

Dec 30, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.27%chance

16891

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1451

881

There will be a change to the permanent members of the UN Security council before 2040

Dec 30, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:00 PM

51.24%chance

16594

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1130

852

Will we have AGI before the US makes any major changes to Social Security?

Apr 5, 12:36 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

45.11%chance

12267

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

974

Will advanced AI systems be found to have made money illegally via finding security exploits and/or getting unauthorized access to others' bank accounts by end of 2035?

Jan 14, 12:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.3%chance

15188

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1119

950

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