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Prediction markets for security

When will Viva.city secure a special jurisdiction?

Jul 31, 2:44 AMJan 1, 3:43 AM

79111

OptionProbability

2028 or later

2026

2027

2025

63

16

16

5

Will Crowdstrike be found guilty or settle for securities fraud before 2027 (related to their 2024 outage)

Jul 25, 9:26 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

10.5%chance

102186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2920

342

Will any veto rights for EUs Common Foreign and Security Policy be removed during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

May 18, 4:09 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM

27.49%chance

42165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1624

616

SOAI#4: A deepfake/agent-driven cyber attack triggers the first NATO/UN emergency debate on AI security

Oct 9, 11:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.47%chance

281935

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1757

569

Will I still feel that it is important to protect my social security number (SSN) in 2050?

Apr 5, 4:33 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

46.49%chance

341882

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

936

Will Armenia withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) by the end of 2027?

Oct 26, 4:29 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

79.7%chance

141295

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

977

Will Social Security become insolvent before 2040?

Jun 28, 4:48 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36.43%chance

111066

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1321

757

Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?

Feb 29, 1:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32930

OptionProbability

1password

Bitwarden

57

43

There will be a change to the permanent members of the UN Security council before 2040

Dec 30, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:00 PM

51.24%chance

16594

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1130

852

Will Vitalik Buterin or the Ethereum Foundation be charged by the SEC with selling unregistered securities by the end of 2030?

Dec 30, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.49%chance

14449

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

956

Will we have AGI before the US makes any major changes to Social Security?

Apr 5, 12:36 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

45.11%chance

12267

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

974

Will advanced AI systems be found to have made money illegally via finding security exploits and/or getting unauthorized access to others' bank accounts by end of 2035?

Jan 14, 12:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.3%chance

15188

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1119

950

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