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Prediction markets for Security

Delayed Social Security payments to at least 100,000 people before December 31, 2025

Feb 1, 9:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.91%chance

12423197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13029

7951

When will Viva.city secure a special jurisdiction?

Jul 31, 2:44 AMJan 1, 3:43 AM

55011

OptionProbability

2028 or later

2026

2027

2025

60

16

15

9

Will Elon Musk lose his security clearance by the end of 2025?

Sep 10, 1:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.04%chance

363311

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1092

767

Will any veto rights for EUs Common Foreign and Security Policy be removed during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

May 18, 4:09 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM

27.49%chance

42165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1624

616

Will I still feel that it is important to protect my social security number (SSN) in 2050?

Apr 5, 4:33 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

52.01%chance

331773

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1042

915

Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?

Feb 29, 1:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32925

OptionProbability

1password

Bitwarden

57

43

Will Social Security become insolvent before 2040?

Jun 28, 4:48 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.34%chance

9847

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1242

805

Party for Freedom (PVV) secures the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary election on October 29, 2025

Jul 26, 5:21 AMOct 29, 5:20 AM

54.34%chance

10604

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

917

Will Crowdstrike be found guilty or settle for securities fraud before 2027 (related to their 2024 outage)

Jul 25, 9:26 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

36.47%chance

9586

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1320

758

There will be a change to the permanent members of the UN Security council before 2040

Dec 30, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:00 PM

53.94%chance

15544

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1185

802

Will Vitalik Buterin or the Ethereum Foundation be charged by the SEC with selling unregistered securities by the end of 2030?

Dec 30, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.38%chance

12299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

941

Will advanced AI systems be found to have made money illegally via finding security exploits and/or getting unauthorized access to others' bank accounts by end of 2035?

Jan 14, 12:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.3%chance

15188

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1119

950

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