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Prediction markets for Security Center

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

Nov 18, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

497048

OptionProbability

Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)

Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons

An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task

Other (10m+ deaths)

Worldwide Pandemic

350+ million climate-displaced persons annually

US Treasury payment default or missed obligation

57

34

32

14

12

10

8

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.08%chance

225803

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13025

7677

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.88%chance

233352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3420

292

Will the next president of France be from Parti Socialiste?

Mar 23, 11:51 AMApr 24, 11:59 PM

9.01%chance

162948

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2699

80

Will Marjorie Taylor Greene publicly reconcile with Donald Trump before her November 3, 2026 reelection?

Nov 16, 6:10 PMNov 2, 11:59 PM

5%chance

271529

OptionVotes

YES

NO

436

23

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

46.35%chance

291467

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

951

US citizen sent to CECOT before EOY 2028?

Apr 16, 7:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.05%chance

81430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2131

469

Will Denmark implement a wealth tax by end of 2027?

Mar 18, 10:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.16%chance

71278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2278

439

How much compute will SpaceX report as of December 31, 2027?

Aug 16, 12:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61224

OptionProbability

4 - 5.99 GW

6 - 7.99 GW

2 - 3.99 GW

Above 10 GW

8 - 10 GW

0 - 1.99 GW

35

21

18

11

9

6

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.21%chance

14835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

943

Will there be large voting fraud accusations following 2026 midterms?

Sep 13, 3:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.33%chance

16453

OptionVotes

NO

YES

251

40

At the start of 2027, which global catastrophic risk organisations will Giving What we Can facilitate donations to?

Feb 11, 3:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1350

OptionProbability

Longview Philanthropy

EA Funds

Founders Pledge

GovAI

Nuclear Threat Initiative

Alliance to Feed The Earth in Disasters (ALLFED)

Forethought

The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security

80,000 Hours

Center on Long-Term Risk

Machine Intelligence Research Institute

90

90

80

80

80

80

80

80

80

80

10

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