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Prediction markets for Security Center

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.32%chance

143736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11916

8392

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.72%chance

192798

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2886

346

will duke win the ncaa tournament

Mar 21, 1:02 PMApr 6, 11:59 PM

21.49%chance

92099

OptionVotes

YES

NO

195

29

Will the next president of France be from Parti Socialiste?

Mar 23, 11:51 AMApr 24, 11:59 PM

24.79%chance

101927

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1971

895

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.79%chance

271368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1207

867

US citizen sent to CECOT before EOY 2028?

Apr 16, 7:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.51%chance

81330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2031

492

Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by...?

Dec 30, 5:32 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

11877

OptionProbability

Dec 31, 2026

Jun 30, 2026

Jan 31, 2026

71

38

0

At the start of 2027, which global catastrophic risk organisations will Giving What we Can facilitate donations to?

Feb 11, 3:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1350

OptionProbability

Longview Philanthropy

EA Funds

Founders Pledge

GovAI

Nuclear Threat Initiative

Alliance to Feed The Earth in Disasters (ALLFED)

Forethought

The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security

80,000 Hours

Center on Long-Term Risk

Machine Intelligence Research Institute

90

90

80

80

80

80

80

80

80

80

10

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

7315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

819

Will Denmark implement a wealth tax by end of 2027?

Mar 18, 10:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.97%chance

4278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1278

782

Will Iranian Minister of Interior Eskandar Momeni still be alive by June 1st 2026?

Mar 21, 5:30 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

64.4%chance

10209

OptionVotes

NO

YES

135

74

Hollywood American Revolution film box office top 10 by July 4, 2076?

Jul 30, 8:39 AMJul 4, 10:59 PM

27.2%chance

11181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

164

61

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