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Prediction markets for Security Score

Will Fable remain at the top of the coding ranking?

Jun 30, 9:15 AMDec 31, 10:05 AM

32.08%chance

193014

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

154

EPL: On January 11, 2027, will Erling Haaland be the outright leading goalscorer in the Premier League?

Jul 11, 10:03 PMJan 11, 11:59 PM

64.29%chance

13947

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1390

692

Will America be a failed state by 2050?

Jan 23, 5:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.55%chance

13557

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

Will the 2026 FIDE World Chess Championship score be tied after game ... ?

May 1, 1:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8443

OptionProbability

Tied after game 2

Tied after game 3

Tied after game 1

Tied after game 5

Tied after game 6

Tied after game 7

Tied after game 4

Tied after game 8

Tied after game 9

Tied after game 10

Tied after game 11

Tied after game 12

Tied after game 13

Tied after game 14

Tied after rapid tiebreaks

82

79

75

60

55

54

52

29

26

25

25

25

25

25

13

When will the average Women, Peace and Security Index score of all countries be 0.75?

Aug 21, 12:36 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6298

OptionProbability

Never

2036-2039

2044-2047

2048-2052

2053-2058

2040-2043

2032-2035

2059-2061

2062-2065

2066->2066

2029-2031

2025-2028

15

11

9

9

9

8

7

7

7

7

6

5

Will Protestant and English-speaking countries become even more individualistic in the next World Values Survey?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

79.01%chance

11213

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

952

Will any democratic nation implement a legal framework for compensating living organ donors by 2034?

Nov 8, 11:55 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

76.66%chance

4118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

179

103

Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?

Jul 16, 1:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

67

What will the winning margin be in the Australia-Hong Kong game at the Men's Rugby World Cup?

Feb 3, 7:14 AMNov 13, 11:59 PM

110

OptionProbability

13-21

22-34

35-55

56-89

More than 89

Less than 13

17

17

17

17

17

14

Will Kaeberlein, Sinclair, Jose Luis Ricon, Zhavoronkov, Lada Nuzhna, Bryan Johnson, Guerente all DnD campaign by 2035?

Dec 3, 4:22 PM

10

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