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Prediction markets for Security Score

Will America be a failed state by 2050?

Jan 23, 5:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.54%chance

13547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

91

Will GPT-5.3-Codex (or successor) independently fix a critical security vulnerability in its own code by July 1, 2026?

Feb 8, 4:02 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

9.1%chance

7546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

316

32

Will the 2026 FIDE World Chess Championship score be tied after game ... ?

May 1, 1:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6322

OptionProbability

Tied after game 1

Tied after game 2

Tied after game 3

Tied after game 4

Tied after game 5

Tied after game 6

Tied after game 7

Tied after game 8

Tied after game 9

Tied after game 10

Tied after game 11

Tied after game 12

Tied after game 13

Tied after game 14

Tied after rapid tiebreaks

75

75

57

52

38

33

31

29

26

25

25

25

25

25

13

When will the average Women, Peace and Security Index score of all countries be 0.75?

Aug 21, 12:36 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6298

OptionProbability

Never

2036-2039

2044-2047

2048-2052

2053-2058

2040-2043

2032-2035

2059-2061

2062-2065

2066->2066

2029-2031

2025-2028

15

11

9

9

9

8

7

7

7

7

6

5

Will Protestant and English-speaking countries become even more individualistic in the next World Values Survey?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

79.01%chance

11213

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

952

Will any democratic nation implement a legal framework for compensating living organ donors by 2034?

Nov 8, 11:55 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

76.66%chance

4118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

179

103

What will the winning margin be in the Australia-Hong Kong game at the Men's Rugby World Cup?

Feb 3, 7:14 AMNov 13, 11:59 PM

110

OptionProbability

13-21

22-34

35-55

56-89

More than 89

Less than 13

17

17

17

17

17

14

Will Kaeberlein, Sinclair, Jose Luis Ricon, Zhavoronkov, Lada Nuzhna, Bryan Johnson, Guerente all DnD campaign by 2035?

Dec 3, 4:22 PM

10

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