Seek AI News

Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

Dec 9, 9:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.08%chance

18928440

OptionVotes

YES

1019

982

By the end of 2025 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue?

Dec 5, 9:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19%chance

15516604

OptionVotes

YES

3865

859

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Jan 30, 2:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

769927

OptionProbability

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

594589

OptionProbability

OpenAI/Microsoft

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?

May 16, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.7%chance

261966

OptionVotes

YES

1503

469

xAI builds truth-seeking AI before 2027?

May 7, 12:46 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

28.41%chance

121096

OptionVotes

YES

1587

630

Will AMD release a product that is competitive with NVIDIA in the AI hardware accelerator space before 2028?

Dec 26, 8:33 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

76%chance

23912

OptionVotes

YES

1108

940

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Aug 8, 5:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.28%chance

8844

OptionVotes

YES

4652

3621

By 2026, will there be a publicly reported instance of a AI social media algorithm displaying power-seeking behaviors?

Jun 29, 5:57 PMDec 29, 6:29 AM

8.86%chance

19776

OptionVotes

YES

1534

895

Will a substantial number of legal arbitrations use an ai arbitration by January 1, 2029?

Jul 16, 1:43 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.85%chance

10660

OptionVotes

YES

1152

904

Conditional on the following events, before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Aug 8, 6:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2230

OptionProbability

7. Before 2050, there is an AI catastrophe and the response IS insufficient

5. Before 2050, an AI system IS shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior

1. Before 2030, there IS an AI-caused administrative disempowerment

3. Between 2023-2030, deep learning revenue DOES doubles every 2 years

6. Before 2050, an AI system IS NOT shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior

2. Before 2030, there IS NOT an AI-caused administrative disempowerment

4. Between 2023-2030, deep learning revenue DOES NOT double every 2 years

8. Before 2050, there is an AI catastrophe and the response IS NOT insufficient

AI system seeks power in a way that wasn't included in the prompt before 2026

May 19, 4:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69%chance

6113

OptionVotes

YES

202

116

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Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

By the end of 2025 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?

xAI builds truth-seeking AI before 2027?

Will AMD release a product that is competitive with NVIDIA in the AI hardware accelerator space before 2028?

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

By 2026, will there be a publicly reported instance of a AI social media algorithm displaying power-seeking behaviors?

Will a substantial number of legal arbitrations use an ai arbitration by January 1, 2029?

Conditional on the following events, before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

AI system seeks power in a way that wasn't included in the prompt before 2026

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