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Prediction markets for Seismic

Will the Trump administration detonate a nuclear bomb?

Mar 12, 8:05 PMJan 20, 8:49 PM

8.46%chance

386062

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3290

304

Will the US or Israel use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?

Jun 25, 8:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.89%chance

171638

OptionVotes

YES

NO

249

40

When will the next earthquake that is greater than magnitude 9.0 and japan seismic intensity scale reach 7 hit japan?

Aug 16, 3:23 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

16826

OptionProbability

2025-2034

2035-2044

2045-2054

2055-2064

2065 or later

Other

2023-2024

41

33

11

6

5

4

1

Will there be a megaquake anywhere in the world by March 31st, 2026?

Jan 4, 8:25 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

8%chance

18784

OptionVotes

YES

NO

339

29

What party will win the 2026 Welsh elections?

Nov 13, 11:44 PMMay 11, 10:59 PM

14397

OptionProbability

Plaid Cymru

Reform

Labour

Liberal democrats

The Green party

Conservative

Other

76

18

3

1

1

1

1

Will AI predict the next magnitude 7+ earthquake to hit San Francisco before it happens?

Jun 21, 1:20 AMJan 2, 2:11 AM

10.45%chance

10380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

293

34

Will there be an earthquake of magnitude >6.0 in the New Madrid Seismic Zone by the end of 2026?

Mar 1, 4:29 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

10.41%chance

5236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

338

50

What will be the highest magnitude of an earthquake near the Phlegraean Fields in italy (Campi Flegrei) in 2026?

Jan 11, 9:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2192

OptionProbability

Up to 4.5

5.6 to 6.0

4.6 to 5.0

5.1 to 5.5

More than 6.1

Other

24

24

19

19

12

2

Did Chandrayaan-3 detect a moonquake?

Apr 9, 8:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.14%chance

214

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

131

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