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In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

46%chance

547459947

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2969

2196

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.18%chance

13646665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13320

9842

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

Feb 20, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

65.4%chance

25635779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2187

1991

Will the ending of one piece involve the strawhats (all or just a select few / just luffy) traveling to the past

Jun 10, 2:55 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.18%chance

6365

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1357

737

Will a European Union member state be one of the first 10 countries to select 10% of its population for IQ?

Jun 30, 1:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46%chance

16284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1036

965

Will Republicans support embryo selection for intelligence more than Democrats?

Jun 30, 1:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29%chance

14249

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

971

Will Singapore be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Jun 23, 1:18 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

68%chance

11221

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1038

972

Will over 1,000,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28%chance

10201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

977

Voice activated text selection supported by AI agent on Android by mid-2026

Oct 14, 3:18 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

53%chance

3151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

942

Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Jun 23, 1:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

77.95%chance

10134

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1090

953

Will my H-1B registration be selected in the FY2027 lottery?

Mar 18, 7:24 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

67.2%chance

2100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

751

Will "The persona selection model" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 24, 7:59 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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