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Prediction markets for Sell

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67.55%chance

10358928

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144964

69643

Will Tesla become the top-selling car manufacturer in 2027?

Aug 19, 11:35 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

6.19%chance

13843922

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5897

1271

Will Tesla sell >$1B of humanoid robots by 2030?

Oct 1, 2:00 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

48.5%chance

687485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1162

740

Will a painting created by an AI sell for over $10 million at a major auction house by 2030?

May 19, 6:45 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

30.83%chance

674479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1835

742

Will Trump "Sell Out" Taiwan Under Rubio's State Department

Nov 8, 12:34 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

32.16%chance

173978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1453

688

Will a European country ban selling meat by 2100?

Aug 14, 11:40 AMAug 14, 10:59 PM

71.47%chance

623413

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1599

715

Will any video game surpass Minecraft as the best-selling video game of all time by 2028?

Apr 24, 7:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

47.28%chance

403071

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1198

671

What will this 6-bed Golden Beach home, listed at $3.9M, sell for by end of Dec 31, 2026?

Oct 9, 6:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

211565

OptionProbability

Not sold by Dec 31, 2026

$3,510,000 or below

$3,510,001 – $3,899,999

$3,900,000 – $4,095,000

$4,095,001 or above

64

11

11

8

5

Will a YuGiOh card sell for a record breaking price by Jan 1st 2027? (Current: $311,211 for Tyler the Great Warrior)

Nov 28, 10:06 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

26.31%chance

181004

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1775

369

Will psilocybin be legal to sell in SF by 2030?

Oct 14, 9:11 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

64.79%chance

21582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

705

Will a Nectome discount card sell for at least $60k before 2036?

Apr 15, 4:17 AMApr 15, 4:11 AM

49.64%chance

4300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

993

Will Hybrid Air Vehicles sell >0 Airlander 10 before 2029?

Feb 24, 10:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.22%chance

3102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

209

201

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