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Prediction markets for Sell

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

65.7%chance

7051445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139076

72591

Will Tesla become the top-selling car manufacturer in 2027?

Aug 19, 11:35 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

7.78%chance

13442839

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4881

1346

Will Tesla sell >$1B of humanoid robots by 2030?

Oct 1, 2:00 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

35.41%chance

646791

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1038

949

Will a painting created by an AI sell for over $10 million at a major auction house by 2030?

May 19, 6:45 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

30.83%chance

674479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1835

742

Will Trump "Sell Out" Taiwan Under Rubio's State Department

Nov 8, 12:34 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

31.69%chance

153908

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1468

681

Will a European country ban selling meat by 2100?

Aug 14, 11:40 AMAug 14, 10:59 PM

71.47%chance

623413

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1599

715

Richard Yang sells out to computer science at MIT by end of April 2026?

May 10, 2:17 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

40.34%chance

192085

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1287

1187

Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?

Mar 13, 6:36 PMApr 1, 11:59 PM

24.22%chance

321494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1557

869

Will Taylor Swift make the best selling album in the US in 2026?

Jan 17, 5:36 PMJan 18, 5:35 PM

46.52%chance

5663

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1072

933

Energy Fuels sells ≥500,000 pounds of V₂O₅ in 2026?

Nov 26, 5:44 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

55.14%chance

4209

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1109

902

Will Buick sell 20k+ EVs in the US in 2030?

Oct 5, 10:04 PMFeb 2, 5:59 AM

49.55%chance

2200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1009

991

Will Hybrid Air Vehicles sell >0 Airlander 10 before 2029?

Feb 24, 10:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.22%chance

3102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

996

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