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Prediction markets for Semiconductor

Will the US be able to prop up its domestic semiconductor industry in a way that rivals China's -- not including Taiwan -- in the next five years?

Oct 16, 9:55 PMOct 17, 6:59 AM

73%chance

453794

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1094

798

In what year will China establish a domestic semiconductor supply chain that is not vulnerable to sanctions?

Mar 28, 12:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

182071

OptionProbability

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

2025-2029

2045-2050

48

16

16

13

7

Will someone disrupt the global semiconductor supply chain by disrupting high-purity quartz mines by EOY 2028?

Mar 11, 10:50 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

10.58%chance

321438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1346

902

Would US Destroy Taiwan’s Semiconductor Industries in the Event of Imminent PRC Control of the Island?

Mar 22, 1:50 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

39.1%chance

251344

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1043

905

Will semiconductors outperform the S&P 500 in 2026?

Apr 24, 9:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.67%chance

91216

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1475

907

Will EU achieve 15% market share in semiconductors before 2030?

Feb 1, 5:32 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.57%chance

14960

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1333

925

Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?

Jun 12, 7:19 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

18.8%chance

11517

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1236

905

[Metaculus] Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

Dec 7, 1:29 PMMar 2, 11:00 AM

60.81%chance

13379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

842

Major semiconductor shipment from Taiwan to Tier-1 AI country fails delivery by end of 2026

Jan 16, 8:07 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

31.21%chance

8370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

568

298

Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?

Jun 12, 7:12 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

15.39%chance

6204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

218

71

Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2027 exceed 8 USD billion?

Apr 6, 6:23 PMJun 30, 4:00 AM

66.22%chance

140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

140

71

Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2028 exceed 8 USD billion?

Apr 6, 6:25 PMJun 30, 4:00 AM

56.94%chance

115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

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