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Prediction markets for Semiconductor

Will there be >20% semiconductor-specific tariffs lasting over a month by the end of 2025?

Aug 2, 10:11 PMDec 31, 7:00 AM

2.74%chance

4263920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

73275

3001

Will the US be able to prop up its domestic semiconductor industry in a way that rivals China's -- not including Taiwan -- in the next five years?

Oct 16, 9:55 PMOct 17, 6:59 AM

73%chance

453794

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1094

798

How large will the Semiconductor Industry (Nvidia, TSMC, AMD etc.) be in 2030? 🤖🧠🦾🚀✨🌐

Apr 26, 1:54 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

162529

OptionProbability

Greater than 4 Trillion

1 to 2 Trillion

2 to 3 Trillion

3 to 4 Trillion

Less than 1 Trillion

67

14

10

8

1

Will someone disrupt the global semiconductor supply chain by disrupting high-purity quartz mines by EOY 2028?

Mar 11, 10:50 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

10.58%chance

321438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1346

902

Would US Destroy Taiwan’s Semiconductor Industries in the Event of Imminent PRC Control of the Island?

Mar 22, 1:50 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

39.1%chance

251344

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1043

905

Will a semiconductor fabrication plant project in Australia be announced before June 1st 2026?

Dec 18, 11:25 PMJun 2, 1:59 AM

15.21%chance

11713

OptionVotes

YES

NO

413

111

Will TSMC dominate the semiconductor manufacturing market for the next 10 years?

Aug 6, 6:18 PMAug 6, 9:59 PM

58.58%chance

11534

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

163

Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?

Jun 12, 7:19 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

18.8%chance

11517

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1236

905

Will EU achieve 15% market share in semiconductors before 2030?

Feb 1, 5:32 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.69%chance

13460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1077

966

[Metaculus] Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

Dec 7, 1:29 PMMar 2, 11:00 AM

60.81%chance

13379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

842

Major semiconductor shipment from Taiwan to Tier-1 AI country fails delivery by end of 2026

Jan 16, 8:07 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

52.68%chance

252

OptionVotes

NO

YES

452

351

Will Liang Mong-Song work at a semiconductor company other than SMIC within the next 5 years?

Sep 3, 12:27 AMSep 3, 10:59 PM

55.85%chance

550

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

111

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