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Prediction markets for Semiconductor Systems

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.58%chance

193559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2640

380

In what year will China establish a domestic semiconductor supply chain that is not vulnerable to sanctions?

Mar 28, 12:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

182071

OptionProbability

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

2025-2029

2045-2050

48

16

16

13

7

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

15.88%chance

91724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2301

435

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

7315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

819

US Patent System gets a price hike by 2026?

Aug 7, 9:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.31%chance

6268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1168

856

Before 2043, will a leading-edge process node feature a new transistor design fewer than 10 years after its invention?

Jun 5, 10:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.97%chance

250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

73

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