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Prediction markets for Semiconductor Systems

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.77%chance

347169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3717

270

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

8.77%chance

156407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3224

310

In what year will China establish a domestic semiconductor supply chain that is not vulnerable to sanctions?

Mar 28, 12:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

182071

OptionProbability

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

2025-2029

2045-2050

48

16

16

13

7

US Patent System gets a price hike by 2026?

Aug 7, 9:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.05%chance

71694

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2582

387

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.17%chance

16992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

977

Will OpenAI in EOY 2027 primarily serve inference on their flagship model on non-GPU hardware

Sep 3, 5:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.45%chance

12123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

86

Before 2043, will a leading-edge process node feature a new transistor design fewer than 10 years after its invention?

Jun 5, 10:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.97%chance

250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

73

Will there be an AI treaty between US and China by end of 2032?

Sep 24, 10:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.16%chance

443

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

90

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