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Prediction markets for Sen

Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?

Feb 7, 6:16 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

14.16%chance

165141663

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2627

579

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:08 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

64.45%chance

4719184

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1306

760

Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?

Jan 17, 12:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.07%chance

2212058

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12238

8168

Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?

Nov 7, 6:10 PMDec 1, 8:59 PM

22.88%chance

5611953

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1836

545

If there is ever a cure to aging, what is it most likely to resemble?

Sep 23, 11:13 AMJul 19, 6:29 PM

485188

OptionProbability

Gene therapy

Other

Nanobots

Fixing the seven types of damage that SENS / Aubrey de Grey target

Uploading

Yamanaka factors

Telomerase

Cybernetics

Bryan Johnson

Mind transplantation to perpetual healthy lab-grown self clones

Adrenochrome

43

26

17

5

4

2

2

1

0

0

0

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

423994

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

822

Sen. Fetterman leaves Democratic Party before 2028 election?

May 16, 5:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.52%chance

9548

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1347

742

Will Aubrey de Grey be re-instated in SOME role by SENS by 2025?

Apr 18, 10:27 PMJan 1, 7:01 PM

22.07%chance

14215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1148

931

Which incumbent Representative or Senator will have the lowest WAR in the 2026 Midterm US Congressional Elections?

Feb 10, 4:07 AMFeb 17, 4:59 AM

3142

OptionProbability

Ilhan Omar (MN-05) - Democratic

Other

Marjorie Taylor Greene (GA-14) - Republican

Cynthia Lummis (WY-SEN) - Republican

Mark Warner (VA-SEN) - Democratic

Nick Begich (AK-AL) - Republican

44

26

15

6

5

4

Which Representative or Senator will have the highest WAR in the 2026 Midterm US Congressional Elections?

Jan 21, 6:12 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

242

OptionProbability

Susan Collins (R|ME-SEN)

Other

Dusty Johnson (R|SD-AL)

Jack Reed (D|CT-SEN)

Brian Fitzpatrick (R|PA-01)

Kristen McDonald Rivet (D|MI-08)

Grace Meng (D|NY-6)

Henry Cuellar (D|TX-26)

50

24

4

4

4

4

4

4

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 26th State Senate district

Jun 18, 2:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Sarah Rascón

Other

Juan Camacho

Wendy Carrillo

Sara Hernandez

Maebe A. Girl (Maebe Pudlo)

18

18

17

16

16

16

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 2nd State Senate district

Jun 18, 2:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Damon Connolly

James Gore

Natalie Rogers

Other

25

25

25

25

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