Senate Democratic Majority News

R Senate, D House

Democrats Sweep

Republicans Sweep

D Senate, R House

NO

Republicans

Democrats

Tie

YES

NO

He also wins the popular vote.

The S&P 500 will be above 5000 at the end of 2024

He won 300+ electoral votes

The U.S.'s democracy index, as measured by the Economist Intelligence Unit, goes down by at least .1 from 2024 to 2028.

Trump pardons himself (regardless of whether the self-pardon is overruled by court decision)

Trump serves full second term

He serves the full term

Democrats win the House majority in 2026.

Inflation is higher when he leaves office than when he takes office

He gets impeached again.

His VP becomes the Republican presidential nominee in 2028.

Ukraine war reaches a ceasefire that is observed for 1 year

Democrats win Senate majority in 2026

he has a fatal or near-fatal health issue while in office

Does not relinquish power at end of term, if still living

The U.S. has a higher World Press Freedom Index in 2028 than 2024.

A national abortion ban is passed during his term.

Trump is President on January 21, 2029

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is President on January 21, 2029

Humanity goes extinct anyway, because AI

YES

YES

YES

NO

Democrats get a majority in the House in 2026

Donald Trump is not president for the midterms

AOC stably has >20% nomination chance per prediction markets

There is no US government shutdown in 2025

Newsom stably has >20% nomination chance per prediction markets

The GOP holds a midterm convention

There is a US government shutdown in 2025

NO