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Prediction markets for Sens

Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?

Feb 7, 6:16 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

15%chance

165140813

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2527

596

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:08 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

64.45%chance

4719184

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1306

760

Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?

Jan 17, 12:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.98%chance

2212035

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12261

8153

Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?

Nov 7, 6:10 PMDec 1, 8:59 PM

22.88%chance

5611953

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1836

545

If there is ever a cure to aging, what is it most likely to resemble?

Sep 23, 11:13 AMJul 19, 6:29 PM

485188

OptionProbability

Gene therapy

Other

Nanobots

Fixing the seven types of damage that SENS / Aubrey de Grey target

Uploading

Yamanaka factors

Telomerase

Cybernetics

Bryan Johnson

Mind transplantation to perpetual healthy lab-grown self clones

Adrenochrome

43

26

17

5

4

2

2

1

0

0

0

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

423994

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

822

Sen. Fetterman leaves Democratic Party before 2028 election?

May 16, 5:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.52%chance

9548

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1347

742

Will Aubrey de Grey be re-instated in SOME role by SENS by 2025?

Apr 18, 10:27 PMJan 1, 7:01 PM

22.07%chance

14215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1148

931

Which incumbent Representative or Senator will have the lowest WAR in the 2026 Midterm US Congressional Elections?

Feb 10, 4:07 AMFeb 17, 4:59 AM

3142

OptionProbability

Ilhan Omar (MN-05) - Democratic

Other

Marjorie Taylor Greene (GA-14) - Republican

Cynthia Lummis (WY-SEN) - Republican

Mark Warner (VA-SEN) - Democratic

Nick Begich (AK-AL) - Republican

44

26

15

6

5

4

Which Representative or Senator will have the highest WAR in the 2026 Midterm US Congressional Elections?

Jan 21, 6:12 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

242

OptionProbability

Susan Collins (R|ME-SEN)

Other

Dusty Johnson (R|SD-AL)

Jack Reed (D|CT-SEN)

Brian Fitzpatrick (R|PA-01)

Kristen McDonald Rivet (D|MI-08)

Grace Meng (D|NY-6)

Henry Cuellar (D|TX-26)

50

24

4

4

4

4

4

4

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 26th State Senate district

Jun 18, 2:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Wendy Carrillo

Sara Hernandez

Other

33

33

33

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 2nd State Senate district

Jun 18, 2:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Damon Connolly

James Gore

Natalie Rogers

Other

25

25

25

25

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