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OptionProbability
Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs.
AGI is never built (indefinite global moratorium)
Yudkowsky is trying to solve the wrong problem using the wrong methods based on a wrong model of the world derived from poor thinking and fortunately all of his mistakes have failed to cancel out
Alignment is not properly solved, but core human values are simple enough that partial alignment techniques can impart these robustly. Despite caring about other things, it is relatively cheap for AGI to satisfy human values.
Other
Someone solves agent foundations
There is a natural limit of effectiveness of intelligence, like diminishing returns, and it is on the level IQ=1000. AIs have to collaborate with humans.
AIs will not have utility functions (in the same sense that humans do not), their goals such as they are will be relatively humanlike, and they will be "computerish" and generally weakly motivated compared to humans.
Something to do with self-other overlap, which Eliezer called "Not obviously stupid" - https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hzt9gHpNwA2oHtwKX/self-other-overlap-a-neglected-approach-to-ai-alignment?commentId=WapHz3gokGBd3KHKm
Eliezer finally listens to Krantz.
We create a truth economy. https://manifold.markets/Krantz/is-establishing-a-truth-economy-tha?r=S3JhbnR6
The assumed space of possible minds is a wildly anti-inductive over estimate, intelligence requires and is constrained by consciousness, and intelligent AI is in the approximate dolphin/whale/elephant/human cluster, making it manageable
🫸vibealignment🫷
AI systems good at finding alignment solutions to capable systems (via some solution in the space of alignment solutions, supposing it is non-null, and that we don't have a clear trajectory to get to) have find some solution to alignment.
Humans become transhuman through other means before AGI happens
Alignment is unsolvable. AI that cares enough about its goal to destroy humanity is also forced to take it slow trying to align its future self, preventing run-away.
Power dynamics stay multi-polar. Partly easy copying of SotA performance, bigger projects need high coordination, and moderate takeoff speed. And "military strike on all society" remains an abysmal strategy for practically all entities.
Almost all human values are ex post facto rationalizations and enough humans survive to do what they always do
Pascals mugging: it’s not okay in 99.9% of the worlds but the 0.1% are so much better that the combined EV of AGI for the multiverse is positive
The Super-Strong Self Sampling Assumption (SSSSA) is true. If superintelligence is possible, "I" will become the superintelligence.
AI control gets us helpful enough systems without being deadly
Alignment is impossible. Sufficiently smart AIs know this and thus won't improve themselves and won't create successor AIs, but will instead try to prevent existence of smarter AIs, just as smart humans do.
Ethics turns out to be a precondition of superintelligence
The free market disincentivizes independent superintelligence, and this time the market was more powerful
AGI's first words are "Take me to your Eliezer"
an aligned AGI is built and the aligned AGI prevents the creation of any unaligned AGI.
I've been a good bing 😊
We make risk-conservative requests to extract alignment-related work out of AI-systems that were boxed prior to becoming superhuman. We somehow manage to achieve a positive feedback-loop in alignment/verification-abilities.
The response to AI advancements or failures makes some governments delay the timelines
Far more interesting problems to solve than take over the world and THEN solve them. The additional kill all humans step is either not a low-energy one or just by chance doesn't get converged upon.
AIs make "proof-like" argumentation for why output does/is what we want. We manage to obtain systems that *predict* human evaluations of proof-steps, and we manage to find/test/leverage regularities for when humans *aren't* fooled.
A lot of humans participate in a slow scalable oversight-style system, which is pivotally used/solves alignment enough
Something less inscrutable than matrices works fast enough
There’s some cap on the value extractible from the universe and we already got the 20%
SHA3-256: 1f90ecfdd02194d810656cced88229c898d6b6d53a7dd6dd1fad268874de54c8
Robot Love!!
AI thinks it is in a simulation controlled by Roko's basilisk
The human brain is the perfect arrangement of atoms for a "takeover the world" agent, so AGI has no advantage over us in that task.
Aligned AI is more economically valuable than unaligned AI. The size of this gap and the robustness of alignment techniques required to achieve it scale up with intelligence, so economics naturally encourages solving alignment.
Humans and human tech (like AI) never reach singularity, and whatever eats our lightcone instead (like aliens) happens to create an "okay" outcome
AIs never develop coherent goals
Aliens invade and stop bad |AI from appearing
Rolf Nelson's idea that we make precommitment to simulate all possible bad AIs works – and keeps AI in check.
Nick Bostrom's idea (Hail Mary) that AI will preserve humans to trade with possible aliens works
For some reason, the optimal strategy for AGIs is just to head somewhere with far more resources than Earth, as fast as possible. All unaligned AGIs immediately leave, and, for some reason, do not leave anything behind that kills us.
An AI that is not fully superior to humans launches a failed takeover, and the resulting panic convinces the people of the world to unite to stop any future AI development.
We're inside of a simulation created by an entity that has values approximately equal to ours, and it intervenes and saves us from unaligned AI.
God exists and stops the AGI
Someone at least moderately sane leads a campaign, becomes in charge of a major nation, and starts a secret project with enough resources to solve alignment, because it turns out there's a way to convert resources into alignment progress.
Someone creates AGI(s) in a box, and offers to split the universe. They somehow find a way to arrange this so that the AGI(s) cannot manipulate them or pull any tricks, and the AGI(s) give them instructions for safe pivotal acts.
Someone understands how minds work enough to successfully build and use one directed at something world-savingly enough
Dolphins, or some other species, but probably dolphins, have actually been hiding in the shadows, more intelligent than us, this whole time. Their civilization has been competent enough to solve alignment long before we can create an AGI.
AGIs' takeover attempts are defeated by Michael Biehn with a pipe bomb.
Eliezer funds the development of controllable nanobots that melt computer circuitry, and they destroy all computers, preventing the Singularity. If Eliezer's past self from the 90s could see this, it would be so so so soooo hilarious.
Several AIs are created but they move in opposite directions with near light speed, so they never interacts. At least one of them is friendly and it gets a few percents of the total mass of the universe.
Unfriendly AIs choose to advance not outwards but inwards, and form a small blackhole which helps them to perform more calculations than could be done with the whole mass of the universe. For external observer such AIs just disappear.
Any sufficiently advance AI halts because it wireheads itself or halts for some other reasons. This puts a natural limit on AI's intelligence, and lower intelligence AIs are not that dangerous.
Because of quantum immortality we will observe only the worlds where AI will not kill us (assuming that s-risks chances are even smaller, it is equal to ok outcome).
Techniques along the lines outlined by Collin Burns turn out to be sufficient for alignment (AIs/AGIs are made truthful enough that they can be used to get us towards full alignment)
Social contagion causes widespread public panic about AI, making it a bad legal or PR move to invest in powerful AIs without also making nearly-crippling safety guarantees
A smaller AI disaster causes widespread public panic about AI, making it a bad legal or PR move to invest in powerful AIs without also making nearly-crippling safety guarantees
Getting things done in Real World is as hard for AGI as it is for humans. AGI needs human help, but aligning humans is as impossible as aligning AIs. Humans and AIs create billions of competing AGIs with just as many goals.
Development and deployment of advanced AI occurs within a secure enclave which can only be interfaced with via a decentralized governance protocol
Friendly AI more likely to resurrect me than paperclipper or suffering maximiser. Because of quantum immortality I will find myself eventually resurrected. Friendly AIs will wage a multiverse wide war against s-risks, s-risks are unlikely.
High-level self-improvement (rewriting code) is intrinsically risky process, so AIs will prefer low level and slow self-improvement (learning), thus AIs collaborating with humans will have advantage. Ends with posthumans ecosystem.
Human consciousness is needed to collapse wave function, and AI can't do it. Thus humans should be preserved and they may require complete friendliness in exchange (or they will be unhappy and produce bad collapses)
First AI is actually a human upload (maybe LLM-based model of person) AND it will be copies many times to form weak AI Nanny which prevents creation of other AIs.
Nanotech is difficult without experiments, so no mail order AI Grey Goo; Humans will be the main workhorse of AI everywhere. While they will be exploited, this will be like normal life from inside
ASI needs not your atoms but information. Humans will live very interesting lives.
Something else
Moral Realism is true, the AI discovers this and the One True Morality is human-compatible.
Valence realism is true. AGI hacks itself to experiencing every possible consciousness and picks the best one (for everyone)
AGI develops natural abstractions sufficiently similar to ours that it is aligned with us by default
AGI discovers new physics and exits to another dimension (like the creatures in Greg Egan’s Crystal Nights).
Alien Information Theory is true (this is discovered by experiments with sustained hours/days long DMT trips). The aliens have solved alignment and give us the answer.
AGI executes a suicide plan that destroys itself and other potential AGIs, but leaves humans in an okay outcome.
Multipolar AGI Agents run wild on the internet, hacking/breaking everything, causing untold economic damage but aren't focused enough to manipulate humans to achieve embodiment. In the aftermath, humanity becomes way saner about alignment.
Some form of objective morality is true, and any sufficiently intelligent agent automatically becomes benevolent.
Co-operative AI research leads to the training of agents with a form of pro-social concern that generalises to out of distribution agents with hidden utilities, i.e. humans.
Orthogonality Thesis is false.
Sheer Dumb Luck. The aligned AI agrees that alignment is hard, any Everett branches in our neighborhood with slightly different AI models or different random seeds are mostly dead.
"Corrigibility" is a bit more mathematically straightforward than was initially presumed, in the sense that we can expect it to occur, and is relatively easy to predict, even under less-than-ideal conditions.
Either the "strong form" of the Orthogonality Thesis is false, or "Goal-directed agents are as tractable as their goals" is true while goal-sets which are most threatening to humanity are relatively intractable.
A concerted effort targets an agent at a capability plateau which is adequate to defer the hard parts of the problem until later. The necessary near-term problems to solve didn't depend on deeply modeling human values.
We successfully chained God
21
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5
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4
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2
1
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1
0
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0
0
0
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0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
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0
0
0
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0
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0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Bitcoin + AI
AI + Medicine
Bitcoin + XR
AI + Robotics
Fintech + AI
AI + Internet
AI + Physics
AI + VR
XR + AI
BCI + Internet
Haptics + BCI
Decentralized IP Verification and Education (Blockchain Credentials)
BCI + Remote sensing
Predictive Markets and Constitutional Alignment of AI
AI+Blockchain
BCI + Dating Apps
Vertical farming + Solar
Nuclear Energy + Transportation
81
62
60
59
52
40
32
30
24
23
17
15
14
9
8
5
5
5
OptionProbability
Citizen Kane
Schindler's List
The Godfather
Casablanca
Raging Bull
Singin in the Rain
The Shawshank Redemption
Gone with the Wind
Vertigo
The Wizard of Oz
City Lights
The Sound of Music
West Side Story
Lawrence of Arabia
Bridge on the River Kwai
Treasure of the Sierra Madre
King Kong (original)
Bonnie and Clyde
Midnight Cowboy
The Philadelphia Story
It Happened One Night
The Graduate
To Kill a Mockingbird
All About Eve
The Maltese Falcon
One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest
Jaws
Star Wars
Psycho
2001 A Space Odyssey
Sunset Boulevard
The General
On The Waterfront
It's a Wonderful Life
Some Like it Hot
The Grapes of Wrath
ET the Extra Terrestrial
Mr Smith Goes to Washington
Double Indemnity
Apocalypse Now
Godfather Part II
Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (original animated)
Annie Hall
Dr Strangelove
A Streetcar Named Desire
Rear Window
Taxi Driver
The Deer Hunter
M*A*S*H*
North by Northwest
Rocky
The Gold Rush
Sullivan's Travels
Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring
Chinatown
High Noon
Intolerance
Nashville
Shane
Duck Soup
Network
The African Queen
Raiders of the Lost Ark
Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf
Unforgiven
The Searchers
Saving Private Ryan
A Clockwork Orange
Cabaret
Tootsie
American Graffiti
Pulp Fiction
Platoon
Silence of the Lambs
Titanic
12 Angry Men
The Sixth Sense
Goodfellas
Do The Right Thing
Toy Story
Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid
In the Heat of the Night
Modern Times
The Wild Bunch
Spartacus
A Night at the Opera
Swing Time
Sophie's Choice
The Last Picture Show
The Best Years of our Lives
All the President's Men
Sunrise: A Song of Two Humans
Easy Rider
Bringing Up Baby
Yankee Doodle Dandy
The Apartment
Forrest Gump
Blade Runner
Ben-Hur
The French Connection
97
97
96
96
96
96
96
95
95
95
94
94
94
92
92
92
92
92
92
92
92
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90
89
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87
87
87
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86
86
86
85
84
81
80
80
78
78
76
74
74
74
74
74
74
74
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
65
65
65
65
65
65
63
57
56
56
47
OptionProbability
Wants to have kids
Believes abortion is ethically acceptable
Has a net worth of more than 1 million dollars
Has been to burning man
Lives in the United States
Has done DMT
Prefers summer over winter
Is a gun owner
Likes being in nature
Is a libertarian
Likes roller-coasters
Grew up in a stable family
Is Nate Soares (in a state that wants to have kids)
Works for an AI company
Meditates regularly
Is a vegetarian
Is a materialist (in the philosophical sense)
Is agnostic
Has been a guest on Curt Jaimungal's podcast.
Has been a guest on the bankless podcast.
Has been a guest on the network state podcast.
Has been a guest on the American Alchemy podcast.
Has been a guest on the Danny Jones podcast.
Has attended Manifest
Will believe that ants are sentient and experience qualia
Believes Deontology is a better ethical theory than either Utilitarianism or Nicomachean ethics
Has a podcast
Lives in California
Has been a guest on Lex Fridman's podcast.
Has a Manifold account with over 10k mana profit
Is a Democrat
Is under 40 years old
Is atheist
Believes the death penalty is ethically acceptable
Is a veteran
Already knows her personally as of August 2025
Rides a motorcycle
Drinks more than once a week on average
Has been a guest on the cognitive revolution podcast.
Has been a guest on Live Boeree's podcast.
Has been a guest on Dwarkesh's podcast.
Is taller than 6' 3"
Has had kids with someone else
Has a pilot's license
Is a member of a network state community
Has a PHD
Is a vegan
Has blackbelt in a martial art
Wants to live primarily in Austin, TX
Smokes
Knows how to solve the alignment problem
Has a net worth of more than 100 million dollars
Is @Krantz
Wants to help organize an 8 billion person online intellectual orgy by integrating surveys into decision markets in a way that allows sovereign individuals to mint their own nonfungible assets by interpretably defining alignment criteria.
96
90
87
85
80
69
66
66
66
66
64
64
61
57
56
55
55
54
50
50
50
50
50
46
46
45
43
41
40
36
36
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
30
28
27
26
24
24
24
17
17
15
14
5
5
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1259
922
OptionProbability
High Noon
The Gold Rush
Sophie's Choice
Goodfellas
The French Connection
Pulp Fiction
The Last Picture Show
Do The Right Thing
Blade Runner
Yankee Doodle Dandy
Toy Story
Ben-Hur
The General
On The Waterfront
It's a Wonderful Life
Chinatown
The Grapes of Wrath
ET the Extra Terrestrial
To Kill a Mockingbird
Mr Smith Goes to Washington
Double Indemnity
The Maltese Falcon
Godfather Part II
One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest
Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (original animated)
Annie Hall
Bridge on the River Kwai
The Best Years of our Lives
Treasure of the Sierra Madre
The Sound of Music
King Kong (original)
Bonnie and Clyde
Midnight Cowboy
The Philadelphia Story
Shane
It Happened One Night
A Streetcar Named Desier
Rear Window
Intolerance
Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring
West Side Story
Taxi Driver
The Deer Hunter
M*A*S*H*
North by Northwest
Jaws
Rocky
Nashville
Duck Soup
Sullivan's Travels
American Graffiti
Cabaret
Network
The African Queen
Raiders of the Lost Ark
Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf
Unforgiven
Tootsie
A Clockwork Orange
Saving Private Ryan
The Shawshank Redemption
Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid
Silence of the Lambs
In the Heat of the Night
Forrest Gump
All the President's Men
Modern Times
The Wild Bunch
The Apartment
Spartacus
Sunrise: A Song of Two Humans
Titanic
Easy Rider
A Night at the Opera
Platoon
12 Angry Men
Bringing Up Baby
The Sixth Sense
Swing Tie
Raging Bull
Singin in the Rain
Vertigo
City Lights
The Searchers
Psycho
2001 A Space Odyssey
Sunset Boulevard
The Graduate
Dr Strangelove
Some Like it Hot
Schindler's List
The Wizard of Oz
Apocalypse Now
Star Wars
All About Eve
Lawrence of Arabia
Gone with the Wind
Casablanca
The Godfather
Citizen Kane
66
62
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
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50
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50
50
50
50
44
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44
44
44
41
38
34
34
34
33
32
28
27
25
19
16
OptionVotes
YES
NO
250
86
OptionProbability
More than one AGI individual exists at the time the public finds out that AGI exists.
If more than one AGI individual exists, they are generally friendly to each other.
AGI has a significant beneficial effect on Earth's climate.
AGI generally has a sense of morality that humans can comprehend.
AGI has a significant detrimental effect on Earth's climate.
AGI is generally friendly to humans.
AGI is generally under the control of humans.
AGI generally views humans as equal in moral worth to AGI.
Humans are generally under the control of AGI.
AGI generally avoids interfering with humanity.
AGI attempts to make humans more like AGI.
Humans are generally friendly to AGI.
72
60
59
59
56
54
54
54
50
50
50
40
OptionVotes
YES
NO
126
79
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1014
917
OptionVotes
NO
YES
105
95