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Prediction markets for Sentient

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:08 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.44%chance

4719284

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

860

Are any insects sentient?

Apr 7, 11:49 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

67.06%chance

768738

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1143

897

Are bees sentient?

Apr 6, 3:52 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

63.84%chance

1198693

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1289

769

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2030? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

43%chance

284981

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

923

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

434062

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

822

Is GPT4 sentient?

May 3, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.2%chance

392573

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2460

782

Will sentient cabbage wipe out humanity by 2100?

Aug 30, 4:15 PMSep 7, 5:59 AM

6.36%chance

211821

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1467

934

Will multiple credible sources claim GPT-5 is sentient?

May 15, 7:20 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11.19%chance

211719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1987

795

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2025? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

35.47%chance

281614

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1097

750

Will a video game be created where its agents are sentient enough to try to hack its own simulation by 2045?

Mar 26, 6:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.86%chance

10311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

235

157

Will the top AI system in 2100 think it is >1% likely there exists a universe with ℶ₃₇ sentient beings?

Jan 2, 5:49 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

21.12%chance

6154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

184

128

[Longbets] >100 person protest in the G7 against switching off a program on the grounds that it is sentient by 2035?

Nov 22, 4:27 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

63.45%chance

5131

OptionVotes

NO

YES

639

572

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