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Prediction markets for Sentient

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:08 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.44%chance

4819304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

860

Are bees sentient?

Apr 6, 3:52 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

57.24%chance

1218893

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

880

Are any insects sentient?

Apr 7, 11:49 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

67.16%chance

778741

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

896

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2030? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

43%chance

284981

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

923

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

454104

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

822

Is GPT4 sentient?

May 3, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.03%chance

392623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2510

778

Will sentient cabbage wipe out humanity by 2100?

Aug 30, 4:15 PMSep 7, 5:59 AM

6.75%chance

222102

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1387

940

Are pigs sentient? [Resolves to superintelligence]

Mar 14, 3:50 AMJan 2, 3:48 AM

88.49%chance

172099

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2773

361

Will multiple credible sources claim GPT-5 is sentient?

May 15, 7:20 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11.19%chance

211719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1987

795

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2025? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

35.47%chance

281614

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1097

750

[Longbets] >100 person protest in the G7 against switching off a program on the grounds that it is sentient by 2035?

Nov 22, 4:27 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

63.45%chance

5131

OptionVotes

NO

YES

639

572

Will >1 year pass between an AI system being available and widespread agreement that it is sentient?

Jan 2, 7:01 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

63.91%chance

340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

67

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