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Prediction markets for Separate

JD Vance and Usha Vance announce separation or divorce before June 1st 2029

Feb 7, 5:57 PMJun 1, 11:00 PM

17.51%chance

509712

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2170

461

Obamas get divorced or separated by mid 2030

Feb 10, 10:38 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

12.32%chance

315929

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2667

375

Mark Zuckerberg either divorced or separated by July 1, 2026

Jan 23, 7:37 PMJul 1, 4:59 AM

7.98%chance

374183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3397

294

Will it become common to carry separate devices to enable AI listening to self outputs by mid 2026

Oct 1, 6:10 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

10.96%chance

142180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2850

351

Will Nectome have a legally separate nonprofit dedicated to storing patients by the end of the year?

Mar 18, 10:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.13%chance

81337

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1397

716

Will Québec become an independent nation, separate from Canada, by 2040?

Nov 24, 1:35 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5.2%chance

14806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

630

125

Will mainstream (online) English use a separate second person group pronoun (y'all, yous, ...) in 2030?

Sep 17, 1:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

34.74%chance

18664

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1192

872

One year later, how will Manifold users view the effects of arXiv's separation from Cornell University?

Mar 16, 3:29 PMMar 13, 10:00 PM

10460

OptionProbability

No Change

Mostly Negative

Mostly Positive

53

30

17

Will linoleic acid be listed separately on food labels in the US by 2030?

Oct 28, 1:17 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

48.38%chance

4252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1033

968

Will Melania divorce or separate from Trump by 2050?

Mar 7, 12:14 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

14.82%chance

9186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

240

42

Will omega-6 be listed separately on food labels in the US by 2030?

Oct 28, 1:18 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

45.85%chance

2111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

920

Will the Ukrainian Orthodox Church and the Orthodox Church of Ukraine exist separately until 2030?

Aug 2, 11:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 PM

80.28%chance

499

OptionVotes

NO

YES

138

38

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