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Prediction markets for Separate

Mark Zuckerberg either divorced or separated by July 1, 2026

Jan 23, 7:37 PMJul 1, 4:59 AM

1%chance

5114708

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9950

101

JD Vance and Usha Vance announce separation or divorce before June 1st 2029

Feb 7, 5:57 PMJun 1, 11:00 PM

17.51%chance

509712

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2170

461

Will there be a separate, second ceasefire in the America / Iran war in 2026?

Apr 9, 11:05 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

20.02%chance

566954

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1800

676

Obamas get divorced or separated by mid 2030

Feb 10, 10:38 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

9.11%chance

316429

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3158

317

Will it become common to carry separate devices to enable AI listening to self outputs by mid 2026

Oct 1, 6:10 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

4.92%chance

183727

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4397

227

Will Nectome have a legally separate nonprofit dedicated to storing patients by the end of the year?

Mar 18, 10:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.05%chance

121605

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1529

654

Will Québec become an independent nation, separate from Canada, by 2040?

Nov 24, 1:35 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5.2%chance

14806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

630

125

Will mainstream (online) English use a separate second person group pronoun (y'all, yous, ...) in 2030?

Sep 17, 1:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

34.74%chance

18664

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1192

872

One year later, how will Manifold users view the effects of arXiv's separation from Cornell University?

Mar 16, 3:29 PMMar 13, 10:00 PM

11510

OptionProbability

No Change

Mostly Negative

Mostly Positive

56

28

16

Will linoleic acid be listed separately on food labels in the US by 2030?

Oct 28, 1:17 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

41%chance

5419

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

834

Will omega-6 be listed separately on food labels in the US by 2030?

Oct 28, 1:18 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

41%chance

3224

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

834

Will Microsoft announce a standalone 'Copilot for Business Processes' product separate from 365 Copilot by mid-2026?"

Dec 8, 5:53 AMJun 29, 11:59 PM

33.31%chance

679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

71

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