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Top stories

Trump’s MAGA Inc Builds $200 Million War Chest as Musk Leads Donor Surge

Trump’s MAGA Inc Builds $200 Million War Chest as Musk Leads Donor Surge

Authors

15

1 day ago

Prediction markets for Separate

Will Michelle and Barack Obama separate/ divorce in 2025?

Jan 21, 8:04 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

2.76%chance

12237155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5933

169

US strikes Iran on 2+ separate days in 2025?

Jun 18, 7:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

9429764

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will the for-profit arm of OpenAI be shut down or otherwise separated from the non-profit arm before 01/01/2026?

Jul 18, 9:28 PMJan 1, 2:30 AM

15.85%chance

295788

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

946

Will Google be broken into separate companies, by October 9th, 2025?

Oct 9, 8:17 PMOct 10, 3:59 AM

5.8%chance

365774

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4031

248

Obamas get divorced or separated by mid 2030

Feb 10, 10:38 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

13.43%chance

305458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2539

394

Mark Zuckerberg either divorced or separated within 18 months

Jan 23, 7:37 PMJul 31, 4:59 AM

9.17%chance

373933

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3147

318

JD Vance and Usha Vance announce separation or divorce before June 1st 2029

Feb 7, 5:57 PMJun 1, 11:00 PM

16.52%chance

213194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2248

445

Will it become common to carry separate devices to enable AI listening to self outputs by mid 2026

Oct 1, 6:10 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

23.61%chance

111128

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1799

556

Will mainstream (online) English use a separate second person group pronoun (y'all, yous, ...) in 2030?

Sep 17, 1:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36.37%chance

17613

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1144

899

Will linoleic acid be listed separately on food labels in the US by 2030?

Oct 28, 1:17 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

42.97%chance

3152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

868

Will omega-6 be listed separately on food labels in the US by 2030?

Oct 28, 1:18 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

45.85%chance

2111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

920

Does manifold prefer Separate Peace or Movable Feast?

Jan 10, 10:31 PMFeb 10, 4:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

a separate peace - knowles

a movable feast - hemmingway

50

50

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Aug 1, 2025
Aug 1, 2025
US Elections
Politics
Trump’s MAGA Inc Builds $200 Million War Chest as Musk Leads Donor Surge
Authors
15
1 day ago

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