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Prediction markets for Sequence

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36%chance

125493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10577

9472

Does the Collatz sequence reach 1 for all starting points below 10^100?

Dec 25, 3:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91.16%chance

102642

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3219

312

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.95%chance

91300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3864

3220

What year will "The Thorn of Emberlain", next book in the Gentleman Bastard sequence by Scott Lynch be released?

Aug 3, 6:33 PMAug 2, 10:59 PM

3859

OptionProbability

Other

2026

2024

2025

58

40

1

1

Will all extant mammal species have their genome sequenced and assembled by 2035?

Aug 29, 11:05 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.57%chance

13769

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1332

926

Will this market resolve on a % in the Fibonacci sequence?

Dec 27, 5:12 PMDec 27, 5:10 PM

54.91%chance

8203

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

Before 2028, will any AI lab release a frontier model that performs O(n) sequence modeling?

Aug 9, 5:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.51%chance

5116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

186

54

Will number 852655 have been found to be in Recamán’s sequence (A005132) before the year 2030 ?

Jan 11, 11:53 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

30.59%chance

6106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

184

125

When will Oxford Nanopore Technology release a commercial protein sequencing platform?

May 21, 6:51 PMApr 21, 6:47 PM

155

OptionProbability

Before 2029

Before 2030

Before 2031

Before 2032

Before 2033

Before 2028

Before 2026

Before 2027

66

66

66

66

66

59

50

50

Will a major character from the Romance of Three Kingdoms have their genome sequenced by EOY2050?

Dec 29, 6:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

62.91%chance

340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

Length of longest sequence of years with an increasing July temperature anomaly for the period 2020-2035.

Sep 4, 1:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

336

OptionProbability

6+ years

3 years

4 years

5 years

2 years

35

17

17

17

13

Will we sequence the genomes of >25 IMO/IPHO/IOI/ICHO gold medalists by EOY2028

Nov 18, 4:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.01%chance

12

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

98

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