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Prediction markets for SER

When will Trump serve time?

Jun 29, 9:56 PMDec 1, 11:03 PM

25511832580

OptionProbability

Never

2029

2030s

2025

2023 (NO)

2024

2026

2027

2028

2040s or later

92

4

4

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

Nov 12, 7:10 PMJan 19, 9:59 PM

22%chance

829421112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2200

759

Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?

Jan 16, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.11%chance

653402566

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1614

880

Will Donald Trump ever serve time in prison?

Jul 26, 4:22 AMJun 26, 6:59 AM

12.71%chance

403220077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5523

979

Trump seriously attempts 3rd term in 2028?

Mar 31, 2:57 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

14%chance

435146995

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2478

403

Trump tries to serve a third term?

Mar 31, 11:44 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

22.31%chance

38387529

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1778

623

Will there exist a service for full-parameter fine-tuning of Llama 3.1 405B?

Aug 18, 12:58 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

14.78%chance

3774174

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24016

4162

Will author Steven Brust complete the Dragaera series by the end of 2028?

Jun 18, 5:48 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

80.48%chance

1919140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

20302

4926

Will I have a new serious relationship within the next 5 years?

Jun 11, 4:45 PMJun 18, 8:59 PM

3011898

OptionProbability

With a cisgender woman

With anyone at all

With a cisgender man

With a transfeminine person

With a transmasculine person

100

100

40

39

24

Will Waymo One expand its SF Bay Area service area to Marin County by December 31, 2026?

Jan 3, 9:53 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

64.35%chance

607115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13407

7472

Who will be the Prologue POV character in "The Winds of Winter" by George R.R. Martin?

May 6, 12:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

9110

OptionProbability

A new character not mentioned previously in the series (including appendices)

Other

Brynden Tully (the Blackfish)

Jeyne Westerling

Whitesmile Wat

Edmure Tully

Ser Ilyn Payne

Ser Forley Prester

Maester Jon Vance

Sybell Spicer

52

10

9

6

6

3

3

3

3

3

Who will win 2026 MLB ALCS? ⚾ (American League Championship Series)

Oct 26, 10:45 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Boston Red Sox

Texas Rangers

Baltimore Orioles

Houston Astros

Toronto Blue Jays

Tampa Bay Rays

New York Yankees

Cleveland Guardians

Detroit Tigers

Seattle Mariners

Other

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

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