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Prediction markets for SER

When will Trump serve time?

Jun 29, 9:56 PMDec 1, 11:03 PM

25861924446

OptionProbability

Never

2029

2030s

2023 (NO)

2024 (NO)

2025 (NO)

2026

2027

2028

2040s or later

91

4

4

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

Nov 12, 7:10 PMJan 19, 9:59 PM

18.93%chance

919546149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2442

698

Will Donald Trump ever serve time in prison?

Jul 26, 4:22 AMJun 26, 6:59 AM

15.72%chance

421231457

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4820

1095

Trump seriously attempts 3rd term in 2028?

Mar 31, 2:57 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

15.13%chance

448160727

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2369

422

Trump tries to serve a third term?

Mar 31, 11:44 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

20.03%chance

41999728

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1916

586

Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2027?

Feb 27, 12:30 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

76.18%chance

14426832

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3358

3047

Will author Steven Brust complete the Dragaera series by the end of 2028?

Jun 18, 5:48 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

50.13%chance

2224705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10025

9975

Will I have a new serious relationship within the next 5 years?

Jun 11, 4:45 PMJun 18, 8:59 PM

3011898

OptionProbability

With a cisgender woman

With anyone at all

With a cisgender man

With a transfeminine person

With a transmasculine person

100

100

40

39

24

Will Waymo One expand its SF Bay Area service area to Marin County by December 31, 2026?

Jan 3, 9:53 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

55.37%chance

659769

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11107

9009

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

Jul 4, 4:48 PMDec 31, 12:57 PM

18.74%chance

41826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7692

5323

Who will be the Prologue POV character in "The Winds of Winter" by George R.R. Martin?

May 6, 12:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

10154

OptionProbability

A new character not mentioned previously in the series (including appendices)

Other

Lady Stoneheart

Brynden Tully (the Blackfish)

Jeyne Westerling

Whitesmile Wat

Edmure Tully

Ser Ilyn Payne

Ser Forley Prester

Maester Jon Vance

Sybell Spicer

40

20

8

7

5

5

3

3

3

3

3

Gobierno de Laura Fernández Delgado, Costa Rica 2026-2030

May 27, 5:32 PMMay 8, 11:59 PM

1100

OptionProbability

Inicia construcción de tren eléctrico

Se termina un teleférico público

El ICE raciona electricidad en algún momento

Se realiza un referéndum

Rodrigo Chaves Robles deja de ser ministro

92

72

45

41

34

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