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Prediction markets for SER

When will Trump serve time?

Jun 29, 9:56 PMDec 1, 11:03 PM

25981946416

OptionProbability

Never

2030s

2029

2028

2023 (NO)

2024 (NO)

2025 (NO)

2026

2027

2040s or later

88

7

3

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

Nov 12, 7:10 PMJan 19, 9:59 PM

13.78%chance

981621363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3009

589

Will Donald Trump ever serve time in prison?

Jul 26, 4:22 AMJun 26, 6:59 AM

16.7%chance

422232361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4634

1131

Will there be a serious attempt by the GOP to overturn the election?

Oct 17, 1:16 AMJan 10, 11:59 PM

4.65%chance

170108664

OptionVotes

YES

NO

93482

5537

Trump tries to serve a third term?

Mar 31, 11:44 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

9%chance

429105090

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3193

386

Will Waymo One expand its SF Bay Area service area to Marin County by December 31, 2026?

Jan 3, 9:53 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

33%chance

8733984

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14277

6989

Will author Steven Brust complete the Dragaera series by the end of 2028?

Jun 18, 5:48 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

42.12%chance

2326456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11724

8530

Will I have a new serious relationship within the next 5 years?

Jun 11, 4:45 PMJun 18, 8:59 PM

3111948

OptionProbability

With a cisgender woman

With anyone at all

With a cisgender man

With a transfeminine person

With a transmasculine person

100

100

40

38

24

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

Jul 4, 4:48 PMDec 31, 12:57 PM

17.74%chance

52226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8092

5234

If Jon Ossoff is reelected, will he serve a full 6 year term?

Oct 22, 12:02 AMJan 2, 11:59 PM

68.28%chance

142175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5422

4702

Who will be the Prologue POV character in "The Winds of Winter" by George R.R. Martin?

May 6, 12:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

10154

OptionProbability

A new character not mentioned previously in the series (including appendices)

Other

Lady Stoneheart

Brynden Tully (the Blackfish)

Jeyne Westerling

Whitesmile Wat

Edmure Tully

Ser Ilyn Payne

Ser Forley Prester

Maester Jon Vance

Sybell Spicer

40

20

8

7

5

5

3

3

3

3

3

Gobierno de Laura Fernández Delgado, Costa Rica 2026-2030

May 27, 5:32 PMMay 8, 11:59 PM

1100

OptionProbability

Inicia construcción de tren eléctrico

Se termina un teleférico público

El ICE raciona electricidad en algún momento

Se realiza un referéndum

Rodrigo Chaves Robles deja de ser ministro

92

72

45

41

34

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