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Prediction markets for SER

When will Trump serve time?

Jun 29, 9:56 PMDec 1, 11:03 PM

25841923818

OptionProbability

Never

2029

2030s

2023 (NO)

2024 (NO)

2025 (NO)

2026

2027

2028

2040s or later

91

4

4

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

Nov 12, 7:10 PMJan 19, 9:59 PM

21.49%chance

907523247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2238

750

Will Donald Trump ever serve time in prison?

Jul 26, 4:22 AMJun 26, 6:59 AM

13.79%chance

421231032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5245

1021

Trump seriously attempts 3rd term in 2028?

Mar 31, 2:57 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

18.74%chance

447160458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2083

480

Trump tries to serve a third term?

Mar 31, 11:44 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

27.91%chance

39388888

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1508

713

Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2027?

Feb 27, 12:30 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

76.18%chance

14426832

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3358

3047

Will author Steven Brust complete the Dragaera series by the end of 2028?

Jun 18, 5:48 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

50.13%chance

2224705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10025

9975

Will I have a new serious relationship within the next 5 years?

Jun 11, 4:45 PMJun 18, 8:59 PM

3011898

OptionProbability

With a cisgender woman

With anyone at all

With a cisgender man

With a transfeminine person

With a transmasculine person

100

100

40

39

24

Will Waymo One expand its SF Bay Area service area to Marin County by December 31, 2026?

Jan 3, 9:53 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

65.89%chance

657750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13869

7225

Will Levi's discord server have 20+ members at the end of July?

Jul 20, 6:51 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

82.52%chance

131812

OptionVotes

NO

YES

293

133

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

Jul 4, 4:48 PMDec 31, 12:57 PM

19.42%chance

31576

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7442

5382

Who will be the Prologue POV character in "The Winds of Winter" by George R.R. Martin?

May 6, 12:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

10154

OptionProbability

A new character not mentioned previously in the series (including appendices)

Other

Lady Stoneheart

Brynden Tully (the Blackfish)

Jeyne Westerling

Whitesmile Wat

Edmure Tully

Ser Ilyn Payne

Ser Forley Prester

Maester Jon Vance

Sybell Spicer

40

20

8

7

5

5

3

3

3

3

3

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