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Prediction markets for Service Providers

Will Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026

Dec 3, 6:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.04%chance

12739825

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1298

785

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

76.69%chance

11228631

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1816

552

Will the NWS stop providing weather forecasts before 2027?

Feb 4, 8:45 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.96%chance

219462

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7587

927

Storage devices with neural networks pre-loaded sold in major electronics retailers by end of 2035

Jan 5, 5:22 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

29.98%chance

217286

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15272

6552

In 2028, will any major hospital advertise the use of AI as the primary method of diagnosis of human patients?

Mar 10, 12:37 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.91%chance

734737

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1391

1188

Will Apple still be partnered with OpenAI in 2028?

Jun 11, 10:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

45.75%chance

184505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1157

966

Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?

Jun 10, 12:18 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

57.61%chance

552029

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1261

970

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.35%chance

211414

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1268

789

If I use one of the below domains for my app, will I be happy with the choice by the end of 2026

Feb 23, 3:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4875

OptionProbability

podfactum.com

podatelier.com

podfabrik.com

69

56

54

By 2029, AI can provide phone banking services as well as human operators, without annoying customers more than humans?

Jan 5, 10:44 AMJan 12, 8:00 AM

61.13%chance

13323

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1078

944

My voice AI covertly acts as me in pharmacy calls by mid 2029

Jun 4, 10:32 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

57%chance

9301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

869

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

53.68%chance

5220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1145

982

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