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Prediction markets for Service Providers

Will Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026

Dec 3, 6:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.16%chance

13443685

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1649

641

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

86.88%chance

11430322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2576

389

Will the NWS stop providing weather forecasts before 2027?

Feb 4, 8:45 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.34%chance

2114853

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8189

891

Will AI revenues be greater than $500 billion by end of 2027?

Sep 24, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.74%chance

1010989

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1869

535

Will Apple still be partnered with OpenAI in 2028?

Jun 11, 10:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

27.63%chance

205129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1715

649

In 2028, will any major hospital advertise the use of AI as the primary method of diagnosis of human patients?

Mar 10, 12:37 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.91%chance

734737

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1391

1188

Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?

Jun 10, 12:18 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

57.61%chance

552029

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1261

970

If I use one of the below domains for my app, will I be happy with the choice by the end of 2026

Feb 23, 3:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51407

OptionProbability

podfactum.com

podatelier.com

podfabrik.com

79

56

54

Will an emergency service provider be sued because of an AI system by eoy2027?

Aug 25, 5:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.78%chance

181090

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

873

By 2029, AI can provide phone banking services as well as human operators, without annoying customers more than humans?

Jan 5, 10:44 AMJan 12, 8:00 AM

61.13%chance

13323

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1078

944

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

52.33%chance

6247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1115

1009

Will Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026

Aug 1, 4:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.16%chance

3117

OptionVotes

NO

YES

172

63

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