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Prediction markets for SET

Will a new 'Highest Air Temperature on Earth' record be set this decade

Apr 5, 2:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.62%chance

13623838

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1928

769

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Jan 8, 2:26 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

268762

OptionProbability

Never or after 1/1/2030

1/1/2028-12/31/2028

1/1/2029-12/31/2029

1/1/2027-12/31/2027

1/1/2026-12/31/2026

Before 2026

83

8

8

7

4

0

Will a human set foot on the moon whilst at least one human to have previously done so is still living?

Jul 5, 9:11 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

70.79%chance

927019

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

1090

Will the next person to set foot on the moon be a woman?

Jul 14, 11:38 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

43.94%chance

386349

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1371

491

Will SpaceX deliver the next set of human astronauts to the lunar surface?

Jan 10, 2:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

39%chance

252880

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1450

455

Will a human will set foot on Mars by the end of 2047?

Mar 26, 1:07 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

73.98%chance

212845

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

983

In three months, will I think setting up this Manifold news reader was worth it?

Oct 21, 2:56 AMJan 21, 2:54 AM

50.53%chance

111652

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10107

9894

Is the 20th Busy Beaver number independent of set theory?

Jan 31, 5:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.07%chance

19622

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1214

696

Will Coefficient Giving set up LLM agents with org accounts and a remote worker-like interface by 5/18/27?

May 20, 1:17 AMMay 18, 12:00 AM

63.18%chance

4511

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1310

763

Will a human set foot on the dwarf planet Ceres before 2060?

Jan 17, 3:58 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

25.3%chance

12256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

983

Will the consistency of the First Order Theory beyond Higher Order Set Theory be determined by EOY 2050?

Jun 20, 3:17 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

39.02%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

800

Will the value of any of the cards printed in the Magic: 30th Anniversary set exceed the price of an MSRP sealed booster box by the end of 2027?

Oct 4, 5:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74%chance

10233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1123

930

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