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Prediction markets for SF Bay Area

When will Waymo offer SF-LA rides?

Nov 13, 6:44 PMJan 1, 6:38 PM

2285402

OptionProbability

2027

Aug 1 2026 - Jan 1 2027

Before EOY

Jan 1 2026 - Apr 1 2026

Apr 1 2026 - Aug 1 2026

95

2

1

1

1

Will Waymo One expand its SF Bay Area service area to Marin County by December 31, 2026?

Jan 3, 9:53 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

69.37%chance

8025385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15021

6674

How many top-50 US metros will Waymo serve at the end of 2026?

Sep 9, 1:51 AMJan 16, 4:59 AM

265388

OptionProbability

9 to 16

17 to 24

>=25

<=8

70

23

4

3

When will Waymo cross any Bay bridge?

Feb 25, 4:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84615

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2030

Before Jul 2030

Before Jul 2029

Before Jan 2029

Before Jan 2028

Before Jul 2028

Before Jul 2027

Before Jan 2027

Before Jul 2026

95

95

90

85

80

80

62

15

0

Where will I live in October 2026?

Apr 24, 6:30 PMOct 1, 12:00 AM

153403

OptionProbability

Menlo Park, CA

Other

Berkeley, CA

Stanford, CA

San Francisco, CA

Oakland, CA

San Jose, CA

Warren's Gore, VT

70

8

6

6

5

3

2

0

Will Waymo's driverless robotaxi service be suspended in CA for 30 days before the end of 2026? [description]

Dec 17, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.77%chance

102846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3126

615

Will Waymo's driverless robotaxi service be suspended in CA for 30 days before the end of 2027? [description]

Feb 15, 2:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.16%chance

102023

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2569

389

Will AI predict the next magnitude 7+ earthquake to hit San Francisco before it happens?

Jun 21, 1:20 AMJan 2, 2:11 AM

10.45%chance

10380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

293

34

Will Waymo One expand its SF Bay Area service area to Marin County by December 31, 2026?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

67.93%chance

5171

OptionVotes

NO

YES

146

69

Will SF Bay area water have higher microplastic contamination in 2028 than in 2026?

Jan 22, 10:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61%chance

013

OptionVotes

NO

YES

63

40

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