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Prediction markets for SF Bay Area

When will Waymo offer SF-LA rides?

Nov 13, 6:44 PMJan 1, 6:38 PM

2055426

OptionProbability

2027

Aug 1 2026 - Jan 1 2027

Apr 1 2026 - Aug 1 2026

Jan 1 2026 - Apr 1 2026

Before EOY

85

7

5

2

1

Will Waymo One expand its SF Bay Area service area to Marin County by December 31, 2026?

Jan 3, 9:53 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

66.02%chance

647730

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13908

7205

How many top-50 US metros will Waymo serve at the end of 2026?

Sep 9, 1:51 AMJan 16, 4:59 AM

224113

OptionProbability

9 to 16

17 to 24

<=8

>=25

85

7

6

2

Will Waymo's driverless robotaxi service be suspended in CA for 30 days before the end of 2026? [description]

Dec 17, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.67%chance

72390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2875

637

Will Waymo's driverless robotaxi service be suspended in CA for 30 days before the end of 2027? [description]

Feb 15, 2:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.12%chance

91823

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2369

422

Will AI predict the next magnitude 7+ earthquake to hit San Francisco before it happens?

Jun 21, 1:20 AMJan 2, 2:11 AM

10.45%chance

10380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

293

34

When will Waymo cross any Bay bridge?

Feb 25, 4:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3338

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2030

Before Jul 2030

Before Jul 2029

Before Jan 2029

Before Jan 2028

Before Jul 2028

Before Jul 2027

Before Jan 2027

Before Jul 2026

95

95

90

85

80

80

69

50

30

Does Cambridge, MA water supply have lower disinfection byproduct concentration than SF Bay area water supply

Jan 24, 4:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.71%chance

443

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

108

Will Chainsaw Man part 3 be announced?

Mar 10, 10:58 PMMay 31, 10:56 PM

45.29%chance

229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will SF Bay area water have higher microplastic contamination in 2028 than in 2026?

Jan 22, 10:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61%chance

013

OptionVotes

NO

YES

63

40

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