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Prediction markets for Sharp

Ethereum falls under $2000 again in Februrary?

Feb 7, 8:12 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

99.85%chance

264818

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2608

4

Donovan Sharpe Stock (Permanent)

Nov 14, 9:51 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

281638

OptionProbability

YES

NO

727

504

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

19700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

994

When will Brazil have a higher MoM inflation rate than Argentina during 2026?

Nov 1, 5:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4677

OptionProbability

November

December

August

September

October

July

June

May

April

February

March

January

34

34

28

28

28

24

19

17

15

2

2

1

S&P 500 Index when the US unemployment rate first surpasses 30%

May 26, 3:49 PMJan 3, 4:59 AM

4474

OptionProbability

15000 - 20000

Above 20000

Below 2000

10000 - 14999

2000 - 3999

8000 - 9999

6000 - 7999

4000 - 5999

18

18

14

13

10

10

9

8

If China invades or stops flights to Taiwan, will Manifold predict it? (sharper)

Dec 2, 7:02 PMDec 30, 6:53 PM

59.06%chance

4301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1201

833

Will a xenharmonic song enter the Billboard Top 100 or Spotify Top 100 tracks before 2030?

Jul 19, 2:35 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

44%chance

6216

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1128

886

Will the gold price drop below $4.5k/ounce in 2026?

Feb 9, 5:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.39%chance

3120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

190

53

Will China's electrolytic cobalt output recover to 800 tonnes by March 2026?

Feb 10, 12:01 AMApr 11, 12:01 AM

17.22%chance

125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1025

869

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

UK imposes net migration cap below 150,000 by 2030?

Dec 19, 8:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will "“Sharp Left Turn” discourse: An opinionated r..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 29, 11:16 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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