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Prediction markets for Sharps

Donovan Sharpe Stock (Permanent)

Nov 14, 9:51 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

281638

OptionProbability

YES

NO

727

504

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

19700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

994

When will Brazil have a higher MoM inflation rate than Argentina during 2026?

Nov 1, 5:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4677

OptionProbability

November

December

August

September

October

July

June

May

April

February

March

January

34

34

28

28

28

24

19

17

15

2

2

0

Will the gold price drop below $4k/ounce in 2026?

Feb 9, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.66%chance

7631

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

92

Will bitcoin achieve a new ath in 2026

Mar 4, 1:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

11624

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Who will be the "best" trader of 2026 on Manifold?

Jan 20, 7:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9570

OptionProbability

@Jack1

Semiotic Rivalry (@SemioticRivalry)

Brad (@brod)

Other

Bayesian (@Bayesian)

Simon (@Simon74fe)

Christopher Randles (@ChristopherRandles)

@jim

@JeromeHPowell

28

14

13

13

12

8

5

5

3

Will a xenharmonic song enter the Billboard Top 100 or Spotify Top 100 tracks before 2030?

Jul 19, 2:35 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

39.87%chance

7316

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1228

814

If China invades or stops flights to Taiwan, will Manifold predict it? (sharper)

Dec 2, 7:02 PMDec 30, 6:53 PM

59.06%chance

4301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1201

833

Will China's electrolytic cobalt output recover to 800 tonnes by March 2026?

Feb 10, 12:01 AMApr 11, 12:01 AM

16.99%chance

2288

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

882

If Democrats win the 2026 Midterms will Republicans contest or deny the results?

Jan 12, 2:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81.89%chance

7270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

213

47

UK imposes net migration cap below 150,000 by 2030?

Dec 19, 8:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will "“Sharp Left Turn” discourse: An opinionated r..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 29, 11:16 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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