Sharps News

What is the highest Sharpe ratio of any Manifold user?

Jan 8, 8:31 PMFeb 8, 5:59 AM

152711

OptionProbability

17.5 - 20

Above 20

15 - 17.4

Below 5

5 - 7.4

7.5 - 9.9

10 - 12.4

12.5 - 14.9

Donovan Sharpe Stock (Permanent)

Nov 14, 9:51 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

281638

OptionProbability

YES

727

504

Will Gold be above $5,000 end of February?

Feb 1, 5:12 PMFeb 27, 11:59 PM

76.9%chance

20752

OptionVotes

YES

182

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

19700

OptionVotes

YES

1003

994

S&P 500 Index when the US unemployment rate first surpasses 30%

May 26, 3:49 PMJan 3, 4:59 AM

4474

OptionProbability

15000 - 20000

Above 20000

Below 2000

10000 - 14999

2000 - 3999

8000 - 9999

6000 - 7999

4000 - 5999

If China invades or stops flights to Taiwan, will Manifold predict it? (sharper)

Dec 2, 7:02 PMDec 30, 6:53 PM

59.06%chance

4301

OptionVotes

YES

1201

833

Who will be the "best" trader of 2026 on Manifold?

Jan 20, 7:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8282

OptionProbability

Semiotic Rivalry (@SemioticRivalry)

Brad (@brod)

Other

Bayesian (@Bayesian)

@Jack1

Simon (@Simon74fe)

Christopher Randles (@ChristopherRandles)

@jim

@JeromeHPowell

Will a xenharmonic song enter the Billboard Top 100 or Spotify Top 100 tracks before 2030?

Jul 19, 2:35 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

44%chance

6216

OptionVotes

YES

1128

886

Will X (Twitter) be overtaken by Threads or another platform in daily active users by mid-2026?

Dec 18, 3:17 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

7143

OptionProbability

X maintains higher daily active users than Threads through mid-2026

Threads overtakes X in daily active users by mid-2026

X and Threads reach parity in daily active users by mid-2026

Market resolves N/A due to unclear measurement methodology

Bluesky overtakes X in daily active users by mid-2026

Another platform (not Threads or Bluesky) overtakes X by mid-2026

Other

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

122

UK imposes net migration cap below 150,000 by 2030?

Dec 19, 8:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

100

Will "“Sharp Left Turn” discourse: An opinionated r..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 29, 11:16 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

100

Sharps News

Prediction markets for Sharps

Prediction markets for Sharps

Prediction markets for Sharps

What is the highest Sharpe ratio of any Manifold user?

Donovan Sharpe Stock (Permanent)

Will Gold be above $5,000 end of February?

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

S&P 500 Index when the US unemployment rate first surpasses 30%

If China invades or stops flights to Taiwan, will Manifold predict it? (sharper)

Who will be the "best" trader of 2026 on Manifold?

Will a xenharmonic song enter the Billboard Top 100 or Spotify Top 100 tracks before 2030?

Will X (Twitter) be overtaken by Threads or another platform in daily active users by mid-2026?

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

UK imposes net migration cap below 150,000 by 2030?

Will "“Sharp Left Turn” discourse: An opinionated r..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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