Sharps News

How many Iranians will be killed by it's regime in 2026?

Jan 11, 12:53 PMJan 12, 2:59 AM

467524

OptionProbability

40000+

20000-39999

6000-9999

10000-19999

3000 - 5999

0 - 1999

2000- 2999

F1: BRITISH 🇬🇧 GP 2026 WINNER 🏎️

Jun 7, 9:59 AMJul 5, 9:59 PM

82621

OptionProbability

Kimi Antonelli 🇮🇹🍕🏃‍♂️

Lewis Hamilton 🇬🇧💄💍

George Russell 🇬🇧💂🥊

Charles Leclerc 🇫🇷🍷💔

Lando Norris 🇬🇧🍊😼

Oscar Piastri 🇦🇺🐍🦂

Max Verstappen 🇳🇱🚣🏆

Other

Isack Hadjar 🇫🇷🚣🗿

Donovan Sharpe Stock (Permanent)

Nov 14, 9:51 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

281638

OptionProbability

YES

727

504

When will Brazil have a higher MoM inflation rate than Argentina during 2026?

Nov 1, 5:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6875

OptionProbability

November

December

August

September

October

July

June

May

January

February

March

April

Will the gold price drop below $4k/ounce in 2026?

Feb 9, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.91%chance

12799

OptionVotes

YES

122

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

19700

OptionVotes

YES

1003

994

Which Erdos Problems will be solved before October 2026?

May 23, 7:57 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

8481

OptionProbability

#571 — Which Turán exponents exist?

#61 — Erdős–Hajnal conjecture

#242 — Erdős–Straus conjecture

#120 — Erdős similarity problem

#77 — Ramsey-number exponential growth

#28 — Erdős–Turán additive basis conjecture

#52 — Sum-product problem

#3 — Divergent reciprocal sums and arithmetic progressions

#20 — Sunflower conjecture

#89 — Sharp distinct-distances problem

Will a xenharmonic song enter the Billboard Top 100 or Spotify Top 100 tracks before 2030?

Jul 19, 2:35 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

36.89%chance

7396

OptionVotes

YES

1308

764

If China invades or stops flights to Taiwan, will Manifold predict it? (sharper)

Dec 2, 7:02 PMDec 30, 6:53 PM

59.06%chance

4301

OptionVotes

YES

1201

833

Will X (Twitter) be overtaken by Threads or another platform in daily active users by mid-2026?

Dec 18, 3:17 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

12291

OptionProbability

X maintains higher daily active users than Threads through mid-2026

Another platform (not Threads or Bluesky) overtakes X by mid-2026

Threads overtakes X in daily active users by mid-2026

Bluesky overtakes X in daily active users by mid-2026

X and Threads reach parity in daily active users by mid-2026

Market resolves N/A due to unclear measurement methodology

Other

Will Congress ameliorate the ACA subsidy cliff for the 2026 tax year?

Apr 14, 8:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.09%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

6216

6157

Will "“Sharp Left Turn” discourse: An opinionated r..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 29, 11:16 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

100

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How many Iranians will be killed by it's regime in 2026?

F1: BRITISH 🇬🇧 GP 2026 WINNER 🏎️

Donovan Sharpe Stock (Permanent)

When will Brazil have a higher MoM inflation rate than Argentina during 2026?

Will the gold price drop below $4k/ounce in 2026?

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Which Erdos Problems will be solved before October 2026?

Will a xenharmonic song enter the Billboard Top 100 or Spotify Top 100 tracks before 2030?

If China invades or stops flights to Taiwan, will Manifold predict it? (sharper)

Will X (Twitter) be overtaken by Threads or another platform in daily active users by mid-2026?

Will Congress ameliorate the ACA subsidy cliff for the 2026 tax year?

Will "“Sharp Left Turn” discourse: An opinionated r..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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