Sharps News

Donovan Sharpe Stock (Permanent)

Nov 14, 9:51 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

281638

OptionProbability

YES

727

504

Who will be the "best" trader of 2026 on Manifold?

Jan 20, 7:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10731

OptionProbability

Semiotic Rivalry (@SemioticRivalry)

Other

Bayesian (@Bayesian)

@Jack1

Brad (@brod)

Simon (@Simon74fe)

Christopher Randles (@ChristopherRandles)

@jim

@JeromeHPowell

Will the gold price drop below $4k/ounce in 2026?

Feb 9, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33%chance

9712

OptionVotes

YES

142

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

19700

OptionVotes

YES

1003

994

When will Brazil have a higher MoM inflation rate than Argentina during 2026?

Nov 1, 5:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4677

OptionProbability

November

December

August

September

October

July

June

May

April

February

March

January

Will a xenharmonic song enter the Billboard Top 100 or Spotify Top 100 tracks before 2030?

Jul 19, 2:35 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

38.72%chance

7346

OptionVotes

YES

1258

795

If China invades or stops flights to Taiwan, will Manifold predict it? (sharper)

Dec 2, 7:02 PMDec 30, 6:53 PM

59.06%chance

4301

OptionVotes

YES

1201

833

Will X (Twitter) be overtaken by Threads or another platform in daily active users by mid-2026?

Dec 18, 3:17 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

8243

OptionProbability

X maintains higher daily active users than Threads through mid-2026

Another platform (not Threads or Bluesky) overtakes X by mid-2026

Threads overtakes X in daily active users by mid-2026

Bluesky overtakes X in daily active users by mid-2026

X and Threads reach parity in daily active users by mid-2026

Market resolves N/A due to unclear measurement methodology

Other

Will Congress ameliorate the ACA subsidy cliff for the 2026 tax year?

Apr 14, 8:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.09%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

6216

6157

UK imposes net migration cap below 150,000 by 2030?

Dec 19, 8:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

100

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

122

Will "“Sharp Left Turn” discourse: An opinionated r..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 29, 11:16 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

100

Sharps News

Prediction markets for Sharps

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Donovan Sharpe Stock (Permanent)

Who will be the "best" trader of 2026 on Manifold?

Will the gold price drop below $4k/ounce in 2026?

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

When will Brazil have a higher MoM inflation rate than Argentina during 2026?

Will a xenharmonic song enter the Billboard Top 100 or Spotify Top 100 tracks before 2030?

If China invades or stops flights to Taiwan, will Manifold predict it? (sharper)

Will X (Twitter) be overtaken by Threads or another platform in daily active users by mid-2026?

Will Congress ameliorate the ACA subsidy cliff for the 2026 tax year?

UK imposes net migration cap below 150,000 by 2030?

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

Will "“Sharp Left Turn” discourse: An opinionated r..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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