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Prediction markets for SHEL

Republicans win democratically and then end democracy swiftly, satisfying militiants and quelling uprisings; civil war is avoided, but democracy becomes an empty shell and no part of the federal government regains democratic control by 2028

Nov 5, 3:19 PMJan 1, 7:00 AM

5.63%chance

172479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

962

Republicans win democratically and then end democracy swiftly, satisfying militiants and quelling uprisings; civil war is avoided, but democracy becomes an empty shell and no part of the federal government regains democratic control by 2028

Nov 4, 7:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.55%chance

202169

OptionVotes

NO

YES

986

865

Lia Shelesh Stock (Permanent)

Dec 2, 2:33 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

10879

OptionProbability

YES

NO

232

225

How will my local supermarket stack shelves in 2035?

Jan 21, 2:17 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

9784

OptionProbability

Humans

No local supermarket exists / other

Task-specific robots

Non-humanoid general-purpose robots

Humanoid general-purpose robots

31

25

22

16

6

When will the LCBO put American alcohol back on its shelves?

Dec 24, 12:26 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3630

OptionProbability

Mar-Apr 2026

May-Jun 2026

Jan-Feb 2026

Jul-Aug 2026

Sep-Oct 2026

Nov-Dec 2026

Dec 2025

2027 or later

39

24

10

8

8

8

1

1

[Carlini questions] Chance one can purchase off-the-shelf robot for under 100k$ that can do manipulation

Mar 24, 1:47 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

9303

OptionProbability

By 2030

By 2027

87

61

Will Shelly Miscavige publicly speak out against Scientology by the end of the decade?

Apr 1, 2:38 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.27%chance

10207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3530

3343

[Carlini questions] Chance off-the-shelf AI system can play as well as casual player on arbitrary board game given rules

Mar 24, 1:49 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7207

OptionProbability

By 2030

By 2027

77

44

Will the shelved Batgirl movie be released or otherwise leaked before 2028?

Dec 29, 4:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.49%chance

5107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

90

Will "Gradual Disempowerment, Shell Games and Flinches" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 3, 12:12 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

7%chance

194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

90

If I watch Ghost in the Shell, will I like it?

Jun 5, 3:53 PMMar 10, 3:52 PM

63.52%chance

772

OptionVotes

NO

YES

132

76

Will live outcome rates for dogs and cats entering US shelters be 90% or higher in 2025?

Sep 22, 2:31 AMSep 1, 3:59 AM

27.47%chance

349

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

85

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