Shell News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Shell
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
18
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Is there a Dyson-like megastructure around Tabby’s Star?
Jun 29, 11:06 AMJun 30, 11:02 AM
9.28%chance
214429
OptionVotes
3126
320
Republicans win democratically and then end democracy swiftly, satisfying militiants and quelling uprisings; civil war is avoided, but democracy becomes an empty shell and no part of the federal government regains democratic control by 2028
Nov 5, 3:19 PMJan 1, 7:00 AM
5.63%chance
172479
OptionVotes
1097
962
Republicans win democratically and then end democracy swiftly, satisfying militiants and quelling uprisings; civil war is avoided, but democracy becomes an empty shell and no part of the federal government regains democratic control by 2028
Nov 4, 7:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
12.55%chance
202169
OptionVotes
986
865
Which of these research ideas will I publish or preprint by end of 2026?
Dec 10, 4:53 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
71671
OptionProbability
100
66
25
24
24
23
23
23
23
23
22
21
21
21
20
19
18
18
18
18
17
16
15
14
13
Will a neural network merge with a human brain before 2050?
Nov 25, 7:43 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
53.3%chance
17390
OptionVotes
1029
944
Will Shelly Miscavige publicly speak out against Scientology by the end of the decade?
Apr 1, 2:38 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
34.27%chance
10207
OptionVotes
3530
3343
Will Wael Sawan (CEO of Shell) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?
Apr 27, 2:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8.78%chance
3196
OptionVotes
258
45
Will Meter, Inc do an initial public offering or get acquired before the end of 2030?
May 25, 3:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
37.47%chance
13159
OptionVotes
1875
1696
Will "Gradual Disempowerment, Shell Games and Flinches" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Feb 3, 12:12 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
7%chance
194
OptionVotes
194
90
OptionVotes
132
76


