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Prediction markets for SHOT

A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027

Apr 6, 12:42 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

8%chance

295455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3391

295

Will there be a warning shot before October 20, 2026?

Oct 21, 5:26 AMOct 21, 6:59 AM

15.73%chance

674963

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1795

1215

Long shot(ish) bets: How many of these 13 markets will resolve as expected?

Nov 16, 4:56 AMFeb 3, 6:59 AM

173884

OptionProbability

13

12

11

10

8-9

5-7

0-4

97

2

0

0

0

0

0

Will @realDonaldTrump celebrate the TWO YEAR ANNIVERSARY of his MUG SHOT on X?

Aug 25, 9:18 PMAug 25, 9:59 PM

32.91%chance

342706

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1428

700

Will the cop who shot Nahel M. be found guilty of homicide?

Jun 29, 4:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65.38%chance

442603

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1138

893

If protestors get shot by law enforcement during Trump's second term will his net approval rating go up?

Jun 8, 5:39 AMJan 20, 11:59 AM

37.01%chance

262525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1305

766

Who actually shot JFK?

Jun 22, 9:17 PMNov 22, 10:12 PM

101569

OptionProbability

David Morales

Felix Rodriguez (Max Gomez)

Raphael "Chi Chi" Quintero

Lee Harvey Oswald

51

51

51

43

What percentage of shots not taken misses?

Mar 6, 10:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

81040

Someone shot in space through 2031

Sep 18, 9:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7.2%chance

20912

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1626

910

Will the DOE Hydrogen Shot Succeed in Reducing the Price of Renewable Hydrogen to $1/kg by 2030?

May 22, 1:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.58%chance

13469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

879

When will a robot zero-shot assemble a 100+ piece Lego set?

Jan 9, 10:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12218

OptionProbability

Later

2027

2026

2025

2024

34

26

17

15

8

Did OpenAI use MUP for zero shot hyper-parameter transfer in GPT-4?

Mar 16, 5:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

81%chance

5170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

175

81

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