SIDE News

Death toll in Israel-Hamas war - Israeli Side

Oct 8, 6:14 AMJun 1, 6:59 AM

31374211

OptionProbability

1500-2500

2500-3500

1000-1500

5000+

3500-5000

0-500

500-1000

Lantern Bioworks' Lumina ProBiotic: Does it work and does it have side effects? [Scott Alexander's possibilities]

Apr 16, 3:28 PMApr 2, 6:59 AM

11116619

OptionProbability

Doesn’t work at all and never will

Causes (at least) minor side effects for some people, same scale as Tylenol

Good on balance, comparable to other beneficial dental treatments

Causes (at least) medium side effects, same scale as tricyclics

Doesn’t work in its current form, but could easily be modified into something that does

Advance of approximately the same magnitude as fluoride

Causes disastrous side effects, same scale as thalidomide

If the left/right culture war comes for AI before US elections, will the right be the pro-AI side?

Jan 21, 10:37 PMNov 30, 10:59 PM

57.95%chance

7313753

OptionVotes

YES

1032

955

Will any more top brass on the Russian side die before the end of the war on Ukraine? [See Description]

Jan 5, 1:34 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

91.71%chance

272836

OptionVotes

YES

2279

738

Will Manifold look positively at the US bombing of Iranian nuclear sides on June 21st 2025 at their anniversary?

Jun 22, 1:15 AMJun 22, 6:59 AM

42.61%chance

302301

OptionVotes

YES

1161

862

Will there be a d20 (20 sided dice) emoji by the end of 2027?

Jun 12, 7:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.98%chance

141705

OptionVotes

YES

2293

436

Will GPT5 help produce a convincing solution to the "Taiwan issue" acceptable to all sides?

Mar 24, 1:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.03%chance

19952

OptionVotes

YES

1361

933

Will a cure that eradicated over 50% of cancer tumors without significant adverse side effects be found before 2050?

Dec 24, 10:49 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

59.45%chance

23865

OptionVotes

YES

1158

866

WW3: India on US side?

Mar 28, 7:28 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

54.84%chance

19547

OptionVotes

YES

1119

874

Will I regret working a side job in a restaurant instead of focusing on my software engineering career?

Mar 27, 5:56 PMMar 28, 4:59 AM

23.45%chance

18399

OptionVotes

YES

987

960

Will "Which side of the AI safety community are you in?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 23, 8:47 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.14%chance

3375

OptionVotes

YES

1151

977

Will any prominent e/accs switch sides to Notkilleveryoneism after examining the arguments in detail?

Apr 9, 9:06 PMApr 9, 10:59 PM

73.83%chance

17361

OptionVotes

YES

1063

967

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Death toll in Israel-Hamas war - Israeli Side

Lantern Bioworks' Lumina ProBiotic: Does it work and does it have side effects? [Scott Alexander's possibilities]

If the left/right culture war comes for AI before US elections, will the right be the pro-AI side?

Will any more top brass on the Russian side die before the end of the war on Ukraine? [See Description]

Will Manifold look positively at the US bombing of Iranian nuclear sides on June 21st 2025 at their anniversary?

Will there be a d20 (20 sided dice) emoji by the end of 2027?

Will GPT5 help produce a convincing solution to the "Taiwan issue" acceptable to all sides?

Will a cure that eradicated over 50% of cancer tumors without significant adverse side effects be found before 2050?

WW3: India on US side?

Will I regret working a side job in a restaurant instead of focusing on my software engineering career?

Will "Which side of the AI safety community are you in?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will any prominent e/accs switch sides to Notkilleveryoneism after examining the arguments in detail?

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