SIDE News

Death toll in Israel-Hamas war - Israeli Side

Oct 8, 6:14 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

30973505

OptionProbability

1500-2500

2500-3500

5000+

1000-1500

3500-5000

0-500

500-1000

Lantern Bioworks' Lumina ProBiotic: Does it work and does it have side effects? [Scott Alexander's possibilities]

Apr 16, 3:28 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10614351

OptionProbability

Good on balance, comparable to other beneficial dental treatments

Causes (at least) minor side effects for some people, same scale as Tylenol

Doesn’t work at all and never will

Advance of approximately the same magnitude as fluoride

Causes (at least) medium side effects, same scale as tricyclics

Doesn’t work in its current form, but could easily be modified into something that does

Causes disastrous side effects, same scale as thalidomide

If the left/right culture war comes for AI before US elections, will the right be the pro-AI side?

Jan 21, 10:37 PMNov 30, 10:59 PM

66.69%chance

7213415

OptionVotes

YES

1272

810

Will there be a d20 (20 sided dice) emoji by the end of 2027?

Jun 12, 7:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.28%chance

131680

OptionVotes

YES

2268

441

Will any more top brass on the Russian side die before the end of the war on Ukraine? [See Description]

Jan 5, 1:34 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

85.15%chance

211513

OptionVotes

YES

1360

850

Will Manifold look positively at the US bombing of Iranian nuclear sides on June 21st 2025 at their anniversary?

Jun 22, 1:15 AMJun 22, 6:59 AM

37.22%chance

211474

OptionVotes

YES

1299

770

Will GPT5 help produce a convincing solution to the "Taiwan issue" acceptable to all sides?

Mar 24, 1:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.03%chance

19952

OptionVotes

YES

1361

933

Will a cure that eradicated over 50% of cancer tumors without significant adverse side effects be found before 2050?

Dec 24, 10:49 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

55.23%chance

22765

OptionVotes

YES

1058

940

WW3: India on US side?

Mar 28, 7:28 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

53.69%chance

18522

OptionVotes

YES

1094

895

Will I regret working a side job in a restaurant instead of focusing on my software engineering career?

Mar 27, 5:56 PMMar 28, 4:59 AM

23.45%chance

18399

OptionVotes

YES

987

960

Will any prominent e/accs switch sides to Notkilleveryoneism after examining the arguments in detail?

Apr 9, 9:06 PMApr 9, 10:59 PM

73.83%chance

17361

OptionVotes

YES

1063

967

Car with no physical side mirrors widely available in the US before 2027

Jul 30, 4:55 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.94%chance

5342

OptionVotes

YES

216

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Death toll in Israel-Hamas war - Israeli Side

Lantern Bioworks' Lumina ProBiotic: Does it work and does it have side effects? [Scott Alexander's possibilities]

If the left/right culture war comes for AI before US elections, will the right be the pro-AI side?

Will there be a d20 (20 sided dice) emoji by the end of 2027?

Will any more top brass on the Russian side die before the end of the war on Ukraine? [See Description]

Will Manifold look positively at the US bombing of Iranian nuclear sides on June 21st 2025 at their anniversary?

Will GPT5 help produce a convincing solution to the "Taiwan issue" acceptable to all sides?

Will a cure that eradicated over 50% of cancer tumors without significant adverse side effects be found before 2050?

WW3: India on US side?

Will I regret working a side job in a restaurant instead of focusing on my software engineering career?

Will any prominent e/accs switch sides to Notkilleveryoneism after examining the arguments in detail?

Car with no physical side mirrors widely available in the US before 2027

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