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Prediction markets for SIDE

Death toll in Israel-Hamas war - Israeli Side

Oct 8, 6:14 AMJun 1, 6:59 AM

31274146

OptionProbability

1500-2500

2500-3500

5000+

1000-1500

3500-5000

0-500

500-1000

85

10

2

1

1

0

0

If the left/right culture war comes for AI before US elections, will the right be the pro-AI side?

Jan 21, 10:37 PMNov 30, 10:59 PM

68.14%chance

7313465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1320

787

Will any more top brass on the Russian side die before the end of the war on Ukraine? [See Description]

Jan 5, 1:34 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

91.71%chance

272836

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2279

738

Will Manifold look positively at the US bombing of Iranian nuclear sides on June 21st 2025 at their anniversary?

Jun 22, 1:15 AMJun 22, 6:59 AM

56.88%chance

231907

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1149

871

Will there be a d20 (20 sided dice) emoji by the end of 2027?

Jun 12, 7:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.98%chance

141705

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2293

436

Will GPT5 help produce a convincing solution to the "Taiwan issue" acceptable to all sides?

Mar 24, 1:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.03%chance

19952

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1361

933

Will a cure that eradicated over 50% of cancer tumors without significant adverse side effects be found before 2050?

Dec 24, 10:49 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

59.45%chance

23865

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1158

866

Will Tsukihime -The other side of red garden- be available in English on its initial release?

Feb 14, 1:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.16%chance

4649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

26

WW3: India on US side?

Mar 28, 7:28 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

53.69%chance

18522

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1094

895

Will I regret working a side job in a restaurant instead of focusing on my software engineering career?

Mar 27, 5:56 PMMar 28, 4:59 AM

23.45%chance

18399

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

960

Will "Which side of the AI safety community are you in?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 23, 8:47 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.14%chance

3375

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

977

Will any prominent e/accs switch sides to Notkilleveryoneism after examining the arguments in detail?

Apr 9, 9:06 PMApr 9, 10:59 PM

73.83%chance

17361

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

967

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