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Prediction markets for SIG

CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026?

Feb 21, 11:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.25%chance

88136210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17850

564

Will the Kenya Universal Basic Income experiment find that UBI significantly reduces local crime?

Jan 10, 3:40 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

69.79%chance

37432761

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2925

1788

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

Feb 21, 2:05 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

18.26%chance

5522494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20673

5320

By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about someone's brain signals being collected or analyzed without their consent?

Feb 9, 10:58 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

40%chance

24919563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2714

1726

Will sports betting be significantly restricted in the U.S. by 2030?

Apr 26, 6:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.12%chance

1314201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16075

6732

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

15.93%chance

1513700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

21180

5941

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Jun 23, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.99%chance

5513610

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20519

7234

Artificially produced gold on a significant scale by 2035?

Jul 18, 10:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.67%chance

949028

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2771

366

Will an LLM Agent discover a single significant contribution (+100 elo gain ) over the leading chess engine before 2028?

Nov 4, 5:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.64%chance

98202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17028

5873

Will signs of past or present life be found on the Jovian moon Europa by 2050?

Oct 2, 6:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.77%chance

412485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

706

Sig Sauer bankrupt by EOY 2035?

Oct 16, 8:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.5%chance

7975

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1283

101

Will the TRIAD trial report that rapamycin significantly extended lifespan in dogs by December 31, 2031?

Oct 1, 4:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.12%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2200

2009

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