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Prediction markets for SIG

Will the Kenya Universal Basic Income experiment find that UBI significantly reduces local crime?

Jan 10, 3:40 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

66.48%chance

36731297

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2675

1905

Will Trump significantly expand high-skill immigration by the end of 2026?

Nov 6, 7:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.99%chance

6027644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2211

452

By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about someone's brain signals being collected or analyzed without their consent?

Feb 9, 10:58 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

40%chance

24919563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2714

1726

Will sports betting be significantly restricted in the U.S. by 2030?

Apr 26, 6:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.72%chance

1113949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15823

6827

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Jun 23, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.13%chance

5412300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19158

7448

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

19.12%chance

1211085

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18565

6494

Artificially produced gold on a significant scale by 2035?

Jul 18, 10:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.84%chance

949025

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2749

369

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

Feb 21, 2:05 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

43.16%chance

254435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10737

9394

SOAI#7: A movie or short film produced with significant use of AI wins major audience praise and sparks backlash

Oct 9, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.45%chance

282673

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1346

743

Will signs of past or present life be found on the Jovian moon Europa by 2050?

Oct 2, 6:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.77%chance

412485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

706

Will OpenAI make significant changes OR discontinue Sora due to "long-term user satisfaction," two years after launch?

Oct 1, 6:00 PMSep 30, 5:51 PM

111815

OptionProbability

OpenAI makes significant changes to Sora

OpenAI discontinues Sora

51

36

Sig Sauer bankrupt by EOY 2035?

Oct 16, 8:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.82%chance

6945

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1253

111

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