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Prediction markets for SIG

Will signs of life on K2-18b be confirmed?

Sep 12, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.48%chance

8439696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9646

667

Will either the courts or congress significantly limit trumps ability to impose or negotiate tariffs by the end of 2025

Apr 7, 10:55 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

15737400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1206

894

Will the Kenya Universal Basic Income experiment find that UBI significantly reduces local crime?

Jan 10, 3:40 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

59.86%chance

35730149

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2264

2144

Will Trump significantly expand high-skill immigration by the end of 2026?

Nov 6, 7:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.03%chance

5826815

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1731

578

Will sports betting be significantly restricted in the U.S. by 2030?

Apr 26, 6:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.59%chance

913193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15073

7129

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Jun 23, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.97%chance

5212270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19342

7418

Will sign-in with OpenAI be announced before 2026?

May 31, 8:03 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

58.85%chance

4511984

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1196

836

Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?

Jan 22, 4:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.47%chance

1611363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15811

8171

Artificially produced gold on a significant scale by 2035?

Jul 18, 10:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.22%chance

878668

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2680

373

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

30.29%chance

75041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12910

8301

Will signs of past or present life be found on the Jovian moon Europa by 2050?

Oct 2, 6:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38.2%chance

402284

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

505

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

Feb 21, 2:05 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

44.45%chance

141602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10441

9624

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