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Prediction markets for SIGN

Will GPT5 show clear signs of diminishing returns?

Mar 30, 5:00 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

53.4%chance

25927595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1855

1089

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

58.08%chance

9013035

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1177

850

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

23.44%chance

88041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15910

7208

Will signs of past or present life be found on the Jovian moon Europa by 2050?

Oct 2, 6:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.77%chance

412485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

706

Will relatively "offline" societies show signs of out-competing "online" societies by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:26 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

41.58%chance

462286

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1069

933

Will Trump sign a concealed-carry reciprocity bill?

Nov 10, 7:37 AMJan 22, 5:59 AM

54.78%chance

62055

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1101

909

AI Warning Signs: Before 2030, will an AI system scam someone without being given explicit instructions to do so?

Jan 18, 7:06 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

60%chance

9762

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

816

Will there be a reliable technology to sign videos such that it reliably resists AI fakes?

Feb 15, 12:08 PMJul 1, 11:59 PM

28.97%chance

13657

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

859

AI Warning Signs: Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:12 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

58.64%chance

10641

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1191

840

Will this “Trump 2020” sign still be up in 2028?

Jul 5, 2:33 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

45.2%chance

9382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

908

Conditional on me dying while signed up with any cryonics organization, will I be revived?

Nov 15, 6:50 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

29.86%chance

17192

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

878

Will the American Boxing Revival Act of 2025 (ABRA) be signed into law by July 4, 2026.

Jul 28, 7:15 PMJul 4, 11:59 PM

52.46%chance

271

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

952

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