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Prediction markets for SIGN

CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026?

Feb 21, 11:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.25%chance

88136210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17850

564

Will GPT5 show clear signs of diminishing returns?

Mar 30, 5:00 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

55.51%chance

26227658

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1803

1152

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

15.93%chance

1513700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

21180

5941

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

56.6%chance

9413352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1142

876

Will signs of past or present life be found on the Jovian moon Europa by 2050?

Oct 2, 6:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.77%chance

412485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

706

Anthropic signs compute deal with Meta by end of 2027?

Jul 1, 8:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.75%chance

82315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1145

873

Will relatively "offline" societies show signs of out-competing "online" societies by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:26 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

41.58%chance

462286

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1069

933

AI Warning Signs: Before 2030, will an AI system scam someone without being given explicit instructions to do so?

Jan 18, 7:06 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

60%chance

9762

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

816

Will Ohio House Bill 249 be signed into law in the 136th General Assembly?

Apr 2, 3:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.19%chance

9759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

964

Will there be a reliable technology to sign videos such that it reliably resists AI fakes?

Feb 15, 12:08 PMJul 1, 11:59 PM

28.97%chance

13657

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

859

AI Warning Signs: Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:12 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

58.64%chance

10641

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1191

840

Conditional on me dying while signed up with any cryonics organization, will I be revived?

Nov 15, 6:50 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

29.86%chance

17192

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

878

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