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Prediction markets for Signa

By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about someone's brain signals being collected or analyzed without their consent?

Feb 9, 10:58 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

40%chance

24919563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2714

1726

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Jun 23, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.99%chance

5513610

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20519

7234

Will this market still exist in 2100? (Bet NO for signaling purposes)

Feb 3, 12:36 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

94.06%chance

314891

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3493

594

Was Jeffrey Goldberg deliberately added to the "Houthi PC" Signal group chat?

Mar 24, 9:25 PMJan 3, 11:59 PM

4.42%chance

224316

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4653

215

Will The Signal Foundation provide the content of a Signal message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Jan 8, 7:39 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

9.89%chance

184256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3019

331

3I/ATLAS confirmed as techno signature?

Sep 2, 8:30 AMOct 31, 8:25 AM

1.73%chance

181958

OptionVotes

YES

NO

754

13

Will intersections where self-driving cars can ignore traffic signals exist in the US by end of 2030?

Jun 29, 6:09 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

10.28%chance

231399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1997

812

Will quantum computers, or any other type of computer, be able to crack bitcoin's ECDSA signatures before 2050?

Apr 21, 11:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.33%chance

14777

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1068

760

Conditional on a second Wow! signal detection, what will be true?

Mar 3, 3:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18620

OptionProbability

The signal has natural extraterrestrial origins

The signal has a bandwidth narrower than 10 kHz

The signal has artificial terrestrial origins

Signal has detectable modulation

The signal has a bandwidth wider than 10 kHz

Signal contains an encoded message

The signal has natural terrestrial origins

The signal uses a frequency in the waterhole region (1420 - 1662 MHz)

The signal has a frequency higher than 1662 MHz

Signal is detected by at least 3 different observatories

The signal has artificial extraterrestrial origins

The signal has a frequency lower than 1420 MHz

Signal contains an encoded message that uses the hashtag “#ChasingUFOs”

79

57

52

46

44

44

43

38

35

34

22

16

12

By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about data collected from people's brain signals?

Feb 9, 10:57 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

48.85%chance

15544

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1079

873

By 2030, will the Mu2e experiment at Fermilab find signals of physics beyond the Standard Model?

Mar 18, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.61%chance

10320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

278

141

Will "LessWrong Shows You Social Signals Before the..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 28, 5:30 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.83%chance

356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1012

998

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