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Prediction markets for Signa

By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about someone's brain signals being collected or analyzed without their consent?

Feb 9, 10:58 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

40%chance

24919563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2714

1726

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Jun 23, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.13%chance

5412300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19158

7448

Will The Signal Foundation provide the content of a Signal message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Jan 8, 7:39 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

9.89%chance

184256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3019

331

Was Jeffrey Goldberg deliberately added to the "Houthi PC" Signal group chat?

Mar 24, 9:25 PMJan 3, 11:59 PM

5.48%chance

213816

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4153

241

Will this market still exist in 2100? (Bet NO for signaling purposes)

Feb 3, 12:36 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

77.49%chance

271422

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1148

898

Will intersections where self-driving cars can ignore traffic signals exist in the US by end of 2030?

Jun 29, 6:09 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

11.97%chance

231149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1747

843

Will quantum computers, or any other type of computer, be able to crack bitcoin's ECDSA signatures before 2050?

Apr 21, 11:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.33%chance

14777

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1068

760

Conditional on a second Wow! signal detection, what will be true?

Mar 3, 3:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18620

OptionProbability

The signal has natural extraterrestrial origins

The signal has a bandwidth narrower than 10 kHz

The signal has artificial terrestrial origins

Signal has detectable modulation

The signal has a bandwidth wider than 10 kHz

Signal contains an encoded message

The signal has natural terrestrial origins

The signal uses a frequency in the waterhole region (1420 - 1662 MHz)

The signal has a frequency higher than 1662 MHz

Signal is detected by at least 3 different observatories

The signal has artificial extraterrestrial origins

The signal has a frequency lower than 1420 MHz

Signal contains an encoded message that uses the hashtag “#ChasingUFOs”

79

57

52

46

44

44

43

38

35

34

22

16

12

By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about data collected from people's brain signals?

Feb 9, 10:57 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

48.85%chance

15544

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1079

873

Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text the signatories of the CAIS Statement on AI Risk before 2028?

May 16, 7:06 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

3286

OptionProbability

Other

Geoffrey Hinton

Sam Altman

Stuart Russell

Yoshua Bengio

Dario Amodei

Demis Hassabis

David Chalmers

Max Tegmark

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Toby Ord

Ray Kurzweil

60

41

41

34

24

24

20

20

20

17

11

10

Will a significant extra-terrestrial signal be detected by SETI before the end of the 22th century?

Apr 21, 8:21 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.13%chance

561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

148

84

Significant attack on post-quantum signature FALCON published before Nov 2026

Nov 21, 8:05 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM

35.7%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

90

55

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