Signal News

By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about someone's brain signals being collected or analyzed without their consent?

Feb 9, 10:58 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

40%chance

24919563

OptionVotes

YES

2714

1726

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Jun 23, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.99%chance

5513610

OptionVotes

YES

20519

7234

Will this market still exist in 2100? (Bet NO for signaling purposes)

Feb 3, 12:36 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

94.06%chance

314891

OptionVotes

YES

3493

594

Was Jeffrey Goldberg deliberately added to the "Houthi PC" Signal group chat?

Mar 24, 9:25 PMJan 3, 11:59 PM

4.42%chance

224316

OptionVotes

YES

4653

215

Will The Signal Foundation provide the content of a Signal message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Jan 8, 7:39 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

9.89%chance

184256

OptionVotes

YES

3019

331

Will intersections where self-driving cars can ignore traffic signals exist in the US by end of 2030?

Jun 29, 6:09 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

10.28%chance

231399

OptionVotes

YES

1997

812

Conditional on a second Wow! signal detection, what will be true?

Mar 3, 3:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18620

OptionProbability

The signal has natural extraterrestrial origins

The signal has a bandwidth narrower than 10 kHz

The signal has artificial terrestrial origins

Signal has detectable modulation

The signal has a bandwidth wider than 10 kHz

Signal contains an encoded message

The signal has natural terrestrial origins

The signal uses a frequency in the waterhole region (1420 - 1662 MHz)

The signal has a frequency higher than 1662 MHz

Signal is detected by at least 3 different observatories

The signal has artificial extraterrestrial origins

The signal has a frequency lower than 1420 MHz

Signal contains an encoded message that uses the hashtag “#ChasingUFOs”

By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about data collected from people's brain signals?

Feb 9, 10:57 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

48.85%chance

15544

OptionVotes

YES

1079

873

By 2030, will the Mu2e experiment at Fermilab find signals of physics beyond the Standard Model?

Mar 18, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.61%chance

10320

OptionVotes

YES

278

141

Will Signal be revealed to have a major undisclosed vulnerability by 2035?

Sep 18, 3:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.15%chance

10138

OptionVotes

YES

106

Will "LessWrong Shows You Social Signals Before the..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 28, 5:30 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.83%chance

356

OptionVotes

YES

1012

998

Will a gravitational wave signal be observed from a Thorne-Żytkow object by 2040?

Jun 4, 2:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.95%chance

350

OptionVotes

YES

122

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Prediction markets for Signal

By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about someone's brain signals being collected or analyzed without their consent?

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Will this market still exist in 2100? (Bet NO for signaling purposes)

Was Jeffrey Goldberg deliberately added to the "Houthi PC" Signal group chat?

Will The Signal Foundation provide the content of a Signal message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Will intersections where self-driving cars can ignore traffic signals exist in the US by end of 2030?

Conditional on a second Wow! signal detection, what will be true?

By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about data collected from people's brain signals?

By 2030, will the Mu2e experiment at Fermilab find signals of physics beyond the Standard Model?

Will Signal be revealed to have a major undisclosed vulnerability by 2035?

Will "LessWrong Shows You Social Signals Before the..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Will a gravitational wave signal be observed from a Thorne-Żytkow object by 2040?

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