Signal AI News

Will net demand for graphic designers fall by 50% or more by 2025?

Aug 10, 1:31 AMSep 1, 3:59 AM

3.66%chance

12828289

OptionVotes

YES

9508

1582

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

Nov 18, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

486932

OptionProbability

Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)

Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons

An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task

Other (10m+ deaths)

350+ million climate-displaced persons annually

US Treasury payment default or missed obligation

Worldwide Pandemic

Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?

Mar 24, 12:48 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

16.92%chance

512750

OptionVotes

YES

1949

655

February 8 Manifold Bonanza - Super Bowl vs Japanese Election vs Artemis II Launch

Feb 1, 9:07 AMFeb 8, 11:59 PM

91270

OptionProbability

Seahawks Win - Takaichi Majority - Artemis II No Launch

Patriots Win - Takaichi Majority - Artemis II No Launch

Seahawks Win - Takaichi No Majority - Artemis II No Launch

Patriots Win - Takaichi No Majority - Artemis II No Launch

Seahawks Win - Takaichi Majority - Artemis II Launch

Seahawks Win - Takaichi No Majority - Artemis II Launch

Patriots Win - Takaichi Majority - Artemis II Launch

Patriots Win - Takaichi No Majority - Artemis II Launch

Will AI interpretability techniques reveal an AI to have been plotting to take over the world before 2028?

Aug 12, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

14%chance

22639

OptionVotes

YES

1123

956

Will first contact with extraterrestrial life be initiated by Earthlings?

Aug 25, 3:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

41.51%chance

19582

OptionVotes

YES

1038

957

Labour Home Secretary publicly defy UK court ruling on deportation before next GE?

Jul 21, 9:57 AMAug 28, 10:59 PM

32.89%chance

6421

OptionVotes

YES

143

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.77%chance

5234

OptionVotes

YES

1025

976

Will early transformative AIs primarily use text?

Oct 2, 2:57 PMOct 10, 6:59 AM

47.38%chance

10209

OptionVotes

YES

160

136

Will a person running for US federal office in 2026 use the phrase 'kardashev scale' in an official capacity?

Feb 5, 12:50 AMNov 10, 11:59 PM

19.33%chance

7190

OptionVotes

YES

204

When will Gemini CLI reach version 1.0 (or higher)?

Dec 30, 4:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2155

OptionProbability

June 2026

March 2026

April 2026

May 2026

January 2026

February 2026

July 2026

August 2026

September 2026

October 2026

November 2026

December 2026 (or later)

Will the first AI to pass a 2-hour adversarial Turing test primarily use text?

Oct 2, 2:58 PMOct 10, 6:59 AM

65%chance

544

OptionVotes

YES

125

Signal AI News

Prediction markets for Signal AI

Prediction markets for Signal AI

Prediction markets for Signal AI

Will net demand for graphic designers fall by 50% or more by 2025?

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?

February 8 Manifold Bonanza - Super Bowl vs Japanese Election vs Artemis II Launch

Will AI interpretability techniques reveal an AI to have been plotting to take over the world before 2028?

Will first contact with extraterrestrial life be initiated by Earthlings?

Labour Home Secretary publicly defy UK court ruling on deportation before next GE?

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Will early transformative AIs primarily use text?

Will a person running for US federal office in 2026 use the phrase 'kardashev scale' in an official capacity?

When will Gemini CLI reach version 1.0 (or higher)?

Will the first AI to pass a 2-hour adversarial Turing test primarily use text?

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