Signal AI News

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19745815

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Nuclear weapon used offensively in 2026

Mar 10, 12:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.99%chance

5521540

OptionVotes

YES

5696

176

Will Africa be a global power house in the nest few months

Mar 14, 4:20 PMJun 30, 2:01 PM

13.98%chance

4410604

OptionVotes

YES

2481

403

Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?

Mar 24, 12:48 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

21.16%chance

522822

OptionVotes

YES

1641

727

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

16%chance

132054

OptionVotes

YES

2291

436

Will Stuttgart 21 open in 2031?

Jun 9, 1:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.5%chance

51054

OptionVotes

YES

167

Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?

Mar 26, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

71.03%chance

91028

OptionVotes

YES

1566

639

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

YES

1031

884

Will AI interpretability techniques reveal an AI to have been plotting to take over the world before 2028?

Aug 12, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.41%chance

23689

OptionVotes

YES

1171

949

Will first contact with extraterrestrial life be initiated by Earthlings?

Aug 25, 3:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

41.51%chance

19582

OptionVotes

YES

1038

957

Will GMail get blocked in Russia by the end of 2026

Jun 1, 8:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14%chance

5430

OptionVotes

YES

1410

918

Will Tesla Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:19 PMDec 31, 9:18 PM

OptionProbability

Below 1.1

1.1 - 1.2

1.2 - 1.3

1.3 - 1.4

1.4 - 1.5

Above 1.5

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Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Nuclear weapon used offensively in 2026

Will Africa be a global power house in the nest few months

Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Will Stuttgart 21 open in 2031?

Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Will AI interpretability techniques reveal an AI to have been plotting to take over the world before 2028?

Will first contact with extraterrestrial life be initiated by Earthlings?

Will GMail get blocked in Russia by the end of 2026

Will Tesla Emissions end at?

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