OptionProbability
The word “peace”
Destruction of tunnel networks and weapons-production facilities
A clear timeline for Hamas disarmament
A mechanism to penalize Hamas non-compliance
An internationally funded weapons buy-back and reintegration program
The word “amnesty”
Handover of Hamas authority to a committee of Palestinians under international oversight
A condition requiring approval by the Israeli government before the agreement takes effect
A list of countries responsible for monitoring implementation
Handover of weapons to a third country outside Palestine
“voluntary reconciliation facilities” for Palestinian fighters to give up their weapons and receive amnesty
A clear timeline for IDF withdrawal
The word “Trump” anywhere in the document
Handover of weapons to the Palestinian Authority or another Palestinian organization
Signatures of other militias or armed groups in addition to Hamas
The word “hostage”
The word “Trump” in the title
An apology and/or expression of regret
The word “state”
An offer to integrate former Hamas members into civilian institutions or a future police or army
A mechanism to penalize Israeli non-compliance
90
74
66
59
57
50
48
47
41
36
26
25
24
22
20
OptionVotes
YES
NO
140
71
114
88
