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Prediction markets for Signify

Will Trump significantly expand high-skill immigration by the end of 2026?

Nov 6, 7:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.96%chance

6228632

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2385

419

Will sports betting be significantly restricted in the U.S. by 2030?

Apr 26, 6:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.13%chance

1214199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16073

6733

Will Y2K38 cause a significant impact in the United States?

Jan 29, 3:36 AMFeb 1, 8:00 AM

12.38%chance

15111275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2258

1396

Artificially produced gold on a significant scale by 2035?

Jul 18, 10:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.67%chance

949028

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2771

366

Will there be significant protests calling for AI rights before 2030?

Apr 20, 12:21 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

33.11%chance

836987

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1862

1047

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

Feb 21, 2:05 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

46.81%chance

315823

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10060

9921

Will significant evidence emerge that Alibaba's ROME AI tried to break free?

Mar 9, 2:45 AMMar 14, 2:43 AM

11.79%chance

354112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2735

366

Will a significant number of Palestinians from Gaza be permanently resettled in Egypt and/or Jordan under Trump's term?

Jan 30, 10:03 PMJan 20, 6:59 PM

6.74%chance

313146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2616

54

SOAI#7: A movie or short film produced with significant use of AI wins major audience praise and sparks backlash

Oct 9, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.83%chance

292683

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1328

753

Will AI propaganda play a significant role in the 2028 presidential election.

Feb 26, 5:23 PMNov 9, 4:59 AM

68.89%chance

262361

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1198

885

By 2050, will informed people significantly reduce their belief in the extent of free will they possess?

May 19, 8:29 PMDec 31, 7:00 AM

50.18%chance

171774

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

965

What company will Amazon buy next for at least $1B?

Aug 5, 5:42 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

15311

OptionProbability

Other

GoPro

Rivian

Peloton

Cloostermans

Oscar Health

Wayfair

ADT

NYT

Madison Square Garden

Overstock

Nextdoor

UPS

Babylon Health

Signify Health

Gamestop

China

Apple

The Catholic Church

Nokia

Wallgreens

Chili's Grill and Bar

a pile of dirty socks

36

34

28

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

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