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Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?

Jan 22, 4:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.18%chance

2458305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

49663

4947

Will the Kenya Universal Basic Income experiment find that UBI significantly reduces local crime?

Jan 10, 3:40 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

62.01%chance

35930682

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2387

2065

Will Trump significantly expand high-skill immigration by the end of 2026?

Nov 6, 7:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.99%chance

6027644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2211

452

Will sports betting be significantly restricted in the U.S. by 2030?

Apr 26, 6:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.72%chance

1013943

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15823

6827

Will Y2K38 cause a significant impact in the United States?

Jan 29, 3:36 AMFeb 1, 8:00 AM

28.89%chance

1509688

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1699

956

Artificially produced gold on a significant scale by 2035?

Jul 18, 10:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.55%chance

928964

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2768

361

Will there be significant protests calling for AI rights before 2030?

Apr 20, 12:21 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

34.92%chance

816775

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1784

1088

Will AI propaganda play a significant role in the 2028 presidential election.

Feb 26, 5:23 PMNov 9, 4:59 AM

69.53%chance

252351

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

875

SOAI#7: A movie or short film produced with significant use of AI wins major audience praise and sparks backlash

Oct 9, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.28%chance

262253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1467

682

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

Feb 21, 2:05 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

45.27%chance

171797

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10257

9774

Will OpenAI make significant changes OR discontinue Sora due to "long-term user satisfaction," two years after launch?

Oct 1, 6:00 PMSep 30, 5:51 PM

8735

OptionProbability

OpenAI makes significant changes to Sora

OpenAI discontinues Sora

51

44

What company will Amazon buy next for at least $1B?

Aug 5, 5:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11270

OptionProbability

Other

Rivian

Peloton

Cloostermans

GoPro

Nokia

Oscar Health

Wayfair

ADT

NYT

Madison Square Garden

Overstock

Nextdoor

UPS

Babylon Health

Signify Health

Gamestop

China

Apple

The Catholic Church

Wallgreens

Chili's Grill and Bar

a pile of dirty socks

49

35

10

2

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

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