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Prediction markets for Signify

Will either the courts or congress significantly limit trumps ability to impose or negotiate tariffs by the end of 2025

Apr 7, 10:55 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

15737400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1206

894

Will the Kenya Universal Basic Income experiment find that UBI significantly reduces local crime?

Jan 10, 3:40 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

59.86%chance

35730149

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2264

2144

Will Trump significantly expand high-skill immigration by the end of 2026?

Nov 6, 7:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.03%chance

5826815

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1731

578

Will sports betting be significantly restricted in the U.S. by 2030?

Apr 26, 6:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.59%chance

913193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15073

7129

Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?

Jan 22, 4:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.47%chance

1611363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15811

8171

Will Y2K38 cause a significant impact in the United States?

Jan 29, 3:36 AMFeb 1, 8:00 AM

28.92%chance

1509687

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1700

955

Artificially produced gold on a significant scale by 2035?

Jul 18, 10:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.22%chance

878668

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2680

373

Will there be significant protests calling for AI rights before 2030?

Apr 20, 12:21 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

29.37%chance

796575

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2043

965

Will a significant number of Palestinians from Gaza be permanently resettled in Egypt and/or Jordan under Trump's term?

Jan 30, 10:03 PMJan 20, 6:59 PM

13.87%chance

272894

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2191

100

Will AI propaganda play a significant role in the 2028 presidential election.

Feb 26, 5:23 PMNov 9, 4:59 AM

69.53%chance

252351

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

875

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

Feb 21, 2:05 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

44.45%chance

141602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10441

9624

What company will Amazon buy next for at least $1B?

Aug 5, 5:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10269

OptionProbability

Other

Rivian

Peloton

Cloostermans

GoPro

Nokia

Oscar Health

Wayfair

ADT

NYT

Madison Square Garden

Overstock

Nextdoor

UPS

Babylon Health

Signify Health

Gamestop

China

Apple

The Catholic Church

Wallgreens

Chili's Grill and Bar

a pile of dirty socks

50

36

7

3

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

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