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Prediction markets for Signify

Will the Kenya Universal Basic Income experiment find that UBI significantly reduces local crime?

Jan 10, 3:40 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

69.79%chance

37432761

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2925

1788

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

Feb 21, 2:05 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

18.26%chance

5522494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20673

5320

Will sports betting be significantly restricted in the U.S. by 2030?

Apr 26, 6:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.12%chance

1314201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16075

6732

Will Y2K38 cause a significant impact in the United States?

Jan 29, 3:36 AMFeb 1, 8:00 AM

12.23%chance

15111300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2283

1393

Artificially produced gold on a significant scale by 2035?

Jul 18, 10:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.67%chance

949028

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2771

366

Will an LLM Agent discover a single significant contribution (+100 elo gain ) over the leading chess engine before 2028?

Nov 4, 5:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.64%chance

98202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17028

5873

Will there be significant protests calling for AI rights before 2030?

Apr 20, 12:21 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

33.11%chance

836987

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1862

1047

Will there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections?

Nov 19, 1:48 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

93.57%chance

275676

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5529

66

Will AI propaganda play a significant role in the 2028 presidential election.

Feb 26, 5:23 PMNov 9, 4:59 AM

75%chance

283436

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1447

789

Will a significant number of Palestinians from Gaza be permanently resettled in Egypt and/or Jordan under Trump's term?

Jan 30, 10:03 PMJan 20, 6:59 PM

7.89%chance

323209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2520

61

What company will Amazon buy next for at least $1B?

Aug 5, 5:42 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

15311

OptionProbability

Other

GoPro

Rivian

Peloton

Cloostermans

Oscar Health

Wayfair

ADT

NYT

Madison Square Garden

Overstock

Nextdoor

UPS

Babylon Health

Signify Health

Gamestop

China

Apple

The Catholic Church

Nokia

Wallgreens

Chili's Grill and Bar

a pile of dirty socks

36

34

28

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will the TRIAD trial report that rapamycin significantly extended lifespan in dogs by December 31, 2031?

Oct 1, 4:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.12%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2200

2009

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