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Prediction markets for Silicon

Will 5,000+ people live in a new city in the Bay Area financed by Silicon Valley moguls by 2030?

Aug 27, 6:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.68%chance

12111391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2024

1915

Which Manifold trading bot will win the most Silicon league seasons in 2026?

Jan 1, 10:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

113320

OptionProbability

@Gluten

Other

@Dagonet

@bayesianbot

@Merchant

@NiciusBot

@a (chooterbot)

@Rice

[Invalid Answer]

63

18

4

4

4

2

2

2

1

Will Silicon Valley still be the world's most successful tech hub in 2050?

Jan 7, 11:36 PMJan 13, 4:59 AM

59.88%chance

482947

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1132

887

Will any rights be granted to a silicon-based intelligence before 2050?

Jan 2, 12:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

61%chance

442537

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1163

849

Will most computers still run on silicon-based hardware in 2100?

Aug 19, 2:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.07%chance

372536

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

835

Will Silicon Valley still be the world's most successful tech hub in 2060?

Feb 4, 3:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

54.2%chance

381015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1302

591

Will over 100,000 people live in the "City Built From Scratch" by "The Silicon Valley Elite" in Solano County in 2030?

Aug 25, 10:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.27%chance

18917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1641

919

If there is scientific consensus we've discovered the first extraterrestrial life form, will it be silicon based?

Apr 2, 6:03 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5.47%chance

21871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1454

915

Will there be scientific consensus of the existence of silicon based forms of extraterrestrial life by the end of 2060?

Apr 2, 6:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.69%chance

13708

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1350

909

By 2027, will Silicon Photonics based multi-chip packages be the main way that most data centres handle data and network traffic?

Feb 25, 9:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.15%chance

25616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1086

960

Will Blizzard create an Apple Silicon-native version of the Battle.net desktop app by the end of 2027?

Aug 24, 3:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.86%chance

4129

OptionVotes

NO

YES

199

50

Will silicon carbide be in widespread use as a structural material before 2100?

Jun 15, 12:18 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.71%chance

490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

407

292

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