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Prediction markets for Silicon

Will 5,000+ people live in a new city in the Bay Area financed by Silicon Valley moguls by 2030?

Aug 27, 6:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.05%chance

11911172

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1974

1824

Will Silicon Valley still be the world's most successful tech hub in 2050?

Jan 7, 11:36 PMJan 13, 4:59 AM

59.88%chance

482947

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1132

887

Will any rights be granted to a silicon-based intelligence before 2050?

Jan 2, 12:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

61%chance

442537

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1163

849

Will most computers still run on silicon-based hardware in 2100?

Aug 19, 2:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.07%chance

372536

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

835

Which Manifold trading bot will win the most Silicon league seasons in 2026?

Jan 1, 10:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81595

OptionProbability

@bayesianbot

@Merchant

@Dagonet

Other

@NiciusBot

@a (chooterbot)

27

27

23

14

4

4

Will Silicon Valley still be the world's most successful tech hub in 2060?

Feb 4, 3:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

51.41%chance

37965

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1252

636

Will over 100,000 people live in the "City Built From Scratch" by "The Silicon Valley Elite" in Solano County in 2030?

Aug 25, 10:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.27%chance

18917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1641

919

If there is scientific consensus we've discovered the first extraterrestrial life form, will it be silicon based?

Apr 2, 6:03 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5.47%chance

21871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1454

915

By 2027, will Silicon Photonics based multi-chip packages be the main way that most data centres handle data and network traffic?

Feb 25, 9:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.85%chance

22474

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1227

929

Will there be scientific consensus of the existence of silicon based forms of extraterrestrial life by the end of 2060?

Apr 2, 6:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.46%chance

13458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

946

Will perovskite or silicon-peroskite pairs be the most common material for solar panels by 2030?

Jan 30, 5:48 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

30.88%chance

10138

OptionVotes

YES

NO

265

144

Will silicon carbide be in widespread use as a neutron moderator before 2100?

Jun 15, 12:38 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51%chance

224

OptionVotes

YES

NO

71

69

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