Simplified News
Prediction markets for Simplified
When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?
May 27, 5:02 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM
1418767
OptionProbability
25
20
19
16
16
4
1
OptionProbability
64
36
AI generated text will be permitted without restriction at all 10 of the highest ranked universities by the end of the decade (<2030)
Dec 24, 8:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
7.78%chance
533458
OptionVotes
2273
788
When will a Manifold question or comment be posted by someone in space?
Feb 27, 7:23 AMJan 2, 10:59 PM
161986
OptionProbability
29
26
23
20
17
14
10
7
0
0
Will an attention tax be issued by Brazil's government before 2030?
Feb 18, 10:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM
6.83%chance
3879
OptionVotes
369
27
On Android, does Kindle have the guts to ship automatic voice accompaniment?
Dec 15, 10:20 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
30.45%chance
14494
OptionVotes
1204
892
AI for AI 2: By when will there be an AI that can do "senior-level" ML engineering?
Jul 3, 6:55 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
4201
OptionProbability
72
72
50
29
22
1
Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
70.79%chance
14181
OptionVotes
1013
986
OptionProbability
85
11
4
Conditional on Mass Unemployment due to AI in the US, which happens first?
Aug 8, 3:07 AMDec 31, 6:17 AM
569
OptionProbability
72
34
Will clinical trials find Xenon inhalation to be safe and effective in humans as a treatment for Alzheimer's?
Jan 16, 4:29 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM
331
OptionProbability
49
15
10
10
8
8
If there is a war with China, will the inflation adjusted value of 'my' savings decline by more than 50% after 5 years?
Sep 6, 6:13 AMJan 14, 4:59 AM
44.86%chance
110
OptionVotes
74
66