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Prediction markets for Simplified

When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?

May 27, 5:02 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

1112701

OptionProbability

2026

2030 or later

2027

2028

2029

2025

2024

21

21

18

14

14

12

1

Looking for Growth UK's National Priority Infrastructure Bill becomes law by December 31st 2025

Jan 18, 3:37 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

1%chance

59390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9950

101

AI generated text will be permitted without restriction at all 10 of the highest ranked universities by the end of the decade (<2030)

Dec 24, 8:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.74%chance

523457

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2285

787

How many Hack Clubbers will there be on Manifold on April 1st, 2026?

Nov 25, 9:28 AMApr 1, 9:07 AM

102674

OptionProbability

Above 15

Above 20

Above 30

Above 50

Above 75

Above 100

Above 150

Above 200

Above 300

Above 500

99

97

96

30

13

6

6

6

3

1

Will an attention tax be issued by Brazil's government before 2030?

Feb 18, 10:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

6.83%chance

3879

OptionVotes

YES

NO

369

27

Will the Magic Arena card pool contain Panglacial Wurm before 2026?

Feb 13, 11:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8.97%chance

16681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

926

On Android, does Kindle have the guts to ship automatic voice accompaniment?

Dec 15, 10:20 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

30.45%chance

14494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1204

892

By 2034, what is the probability that a dollar donated to Daffy will be used for unintended purposes?

Mar 9, 12:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.31%chance

5490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

588

78

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

986

What Chinese orthography will Singapore use in 2050?

Apr 4, 2:28 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

6180

OptionProbability

Simplified

Something substantially different

Traditional

85

11

4

Entity Framework Core v11 contains SQL MERGE support?

Jul 5, 4:31 PMNov 30, 5:31 PM

29%chance

382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

64

Conditional on Mass Unemployment due to AI in the US, which happens first?

Aug 8, 3:07 AMDec 31, 6:17 AM

569

OptionProbability

Universal Basic Income

Universal Basic Compute

72

34

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