Sinn Féin News

Will Ireland be invaded by the UK before 2030 in the event of a Sinn Fein Taoiseach in next elections

May 11, 10:15 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

2.89%chance

334645

OptionVotes

YES

2902

834

What will happen to the UK before 2050?

Apr 16, 3:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

282144

OptionProbability

electing a PM who contemporaneously describes himself as a socialist

Coronation of King William

Any Overseas Territory or Crown Dependency no longer under British sovereignty (de jure, even if temporarily)

A major financial crisis (40% drawdown of FTSE 100)

a year where population declines by 1%

Rejoining the European Customs Union

A year with inflation >10%

A Prime Minister not from the Conservative or Labour parties

The House of Lords is either abolished or democratically elected

A game of thrones sequel (not a prequel)

A ≤500-member House of Commons is elected (incl. Sinn Féin)

Republic

Winning the FIFA world cup

Any part of the territory of the UK proper as of 2024 ceases to be under British sovereignty

UK invades a foreign country with >10k ground troops

rejoining the European Union

House of Commons elections use a different voting method than "name one and shut up"

joining the Euro

A year with higher GDP (PPP) per capita than Canada

Two new monarchs after Charles III

Has an NFL franchise

annexation by the USA

100

What will be the distribution of seats after the next UK General Election?

May 3, 6:26 AMAug 15, 6:18 AM

9704

OptionProbability

Reform

Labour

Conservatives

Liberal Democrats

Other

SNP (Scottish National Party)

Greens

Plaid Cymru

Sinn Féin

DUP (Democratic Unionist Party)

When will Michelle O’Neill be replaced as First Minister of Northern Ireland?

Feb 3, 1:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5572

OptionProbability

2024

2026

2025

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Other

In the next UK General Election [Likely 2029] which parties will gain seats?

Jul 7, 4:21 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16563

OptionProbability

Reform UK

SNP

SDLP

Plaid Cymru

UUP

Greens

Conservatives

Lib Dem

Sinn Fein

DUP

Labour

Which party will the first Taoiseach be from following the next Irish general election?

May 24, 11:17 AMJan 31, 12:17 PM

350

OptionProbability

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Other

Sinn Féin

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Will Ireland be invaded by the UK before 2030 in the event of a Sinn Fein Taoiseach in next elections

What will happen to the UK before 2050?

What will be the distribution of seats after the next UK General Election?

When will Michelle O’Neill be replaced as First Minister of Northern Ireland?

In the next UK General Election [Likely 2029] which parties will gain seats?

Which party will the first Taoiseach be from following the next Irish general election?

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