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Prediction markets for SIX

Ratio of sixes to fours in IPL 2026

Apr 13, 8:31 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

71479

OptionProbability

Above 0.6

0.58 - 0.6

Below 0.56

0.56 - 0.579

93

3

2

2

Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?

Aug 31, 6:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.18%chance

101345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1486

673

Trump impeached, convicted, and removed within six months of approval below 35%?

Jun 6, 3:04 PMDec 6, 3:00 PM

20.65%chance

131318

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1960

510

At least 50% of US citizens have been evacuated from Taiwan within a six month period before 2037

Jun 13, 12:58 AMJun 13, 3:59 AM

38.1%chance

20711

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

969

Will the PC version of Grand Theft Auto 6 release within six months of the console version?

Dec 5, 6:10 AMDec 13, 5:59 AM

15.82%chance

13617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1297

922

Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development for at least six months as a result of safety evaluations?

Mar 7, 1:07 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.78%chance

11457

OptionVotes

NO

YES

260

247

What “first in North America” roller coaster model will Six Flags Magic Mountain announce for 2026? (Add answers)

Nov 19, 12:46 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3418

OptionProbability

Vekoma Inverted Motorbike

Vekoma Launched Flying Coaster (i.e. F.L.Y.)

Magic Mountain does not announce a new-to-North America coaster by 1/1/27

Other

S&S Axis

Mack Stryker

Mack Hyper

90

2

2

2

1

1

1

Will there be an all-female crew as part of the next six missions to land on the moon?

Apr 11, 10:35 AMMay 31, 3:59 PM

13.71%chance

12322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1237

921

Double digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?

Apr 21, 12:20 AMDec 31, 1:18 AM

9.97%chance

10312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

933

Will there be an all-female crew as part of the first six missions to land on mars?

Apr 21, 10:01 AMMay 31, 3:59 PM

24.11%chance

8290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

323

192

How many microcancers is one six pack of beer?

Aug 16, 5:06 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

10.08%chance

5169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

234

73

Which markets will close during the six months prior to the next nuclear attack?

Dec 2, 4:10 PMJan 2, 12:00 AM

2110

OptionProbability

Other

Nuclear doomsday clock: https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-the-doomsday-clock-advance-tow-267cd4b639d9--cash

55

4

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