SIX News

IRON MEN: Which 6 of these 10 politicians will keep power longer? The next four "out" go to 0%, remaining six go to 100%

Jan 8, 5:27 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

339257

OptionProbability

Kim Jong Un, Supreme Leader of North Korea, 1982/1983/1984

Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, 1953

Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, 1952

Alexander Lukashenko, President of Belarus, 1954

Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, 1950

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, President of Turkey, 1954

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, 1978

Donald Trump, US President, 1946

Mahmoud Abbas, President of the State of Palestine and Palestinian National Authority, 1935

Viktor Orbán, Prime Minister of Hungary, 1963

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran, 1939

Nicolas Maduro, President of Venezuela, 1962

Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?

Aug 31, 6:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.18%chance

101345

OptionVotes

YES

1486

673

Trump impeached, convicted, and removed within six months of approval below 35%?

Jun 6, 3:04 PMDec 6, 3:00 PM

22.42%chance

121218

OptionVotes

YES

1860

538

At least 50% of US citizens have been evacuated from Taiwan within a six month period before 2037

Jun 13, 12:58 AMJun 13, 3:59 AM

38.1%chance

20711

OptionVotes

YES

990

969

Will the PC version of Grand Theft Auto 6 release within six months of the console version?

Dec 5, 6:10 AMDec 13, 5:59 AM

15.82%chance

13617

OptionVotes

YES

1297

922

Will there be an all-female crew as part of the next six missions to land on the moon?

Apr 11, 10:35 AMMay 31, 3:59 PM

13.71%chance

12322

OptionVotes

YES

1237

921

Double digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?

Apr 21, 12:20 AMDec 31, 1:18 AM

9.97%chance

10312

OptionVotes

YES

1201

933

Will there be an all-female crew as part of the first six missions to land on mars?

Apr 21, 10:01 AMMay 31, 3:59 PM

24.11%chance

8290

OptionVotes

YES

323

192

What “first in North America” roller coaster model will Six Flags Magic Mountain announce for 2026? (Add answers)

Nov 19, 12:46 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3219

OptionProbability

Vekoma Inverted Motorbike

Vekoma Launched Flying Coaster (i.e. F.L.Y.)

Magic Mountain does not announce a new-to-North America coaster by 1/1/27

Other

S&S Axis

Mack Stryker

Mack Hyper

How many microcancers is one six pack of beer?

Aug 16, 5:06 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

10.08%chance

5169

OptionVotes

YES

234

A top-three AI lab delays a frontier model release six months for safety reasons?

May 19, 12:23 PMJan 31, 12:20 PM

19.6%chance

7122

OptionVotes

YES

203

Conditional on JD Vance being president for at least six months before 2029, will he reduce Trump's tariffs?

Apr 3, 10:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.46%chance

880

OptionVotes

YES

147

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IRON MEN: Which 6 of these 10 politicians will keep power longer? The next four "out" go to 0%, remaining six go to 100%

Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?

Trump impeached, convicted, and removed within six months of approval below 35%?

At least 50% of US citizens have been evacuated from Taiwan within a six month period before 2037

Will the PC version of Grand Theft Auto 6 release within six months of the console version?

Will there be an all-female crew as part of the next six missions to land on the moon?

Double digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?

Will there be an all-female crew as part of the first six missions to land on mars?

What “first in North America” roller coaster model will Six Flags Magic Mountain announce for 2026? (Add answers)

How many microcancers is one six pack of beer?

A top-three AI lab delays a frontier model release six months for safety reasons?

Conditional on JD Vance being president for at least six months before 2029, will he reduce Trump's tariffs?

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