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Prediction markets for SIX

Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?

Aug 31, 6:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.77%chance

101304

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1401

714

Trump impeached, convicted, and removed within six months of approval below 35%?

Jun 6, 3:04 PMDec 6, 3:00 PM

22.42%chance

121218

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1860

538

At least 50% of US citizens have been evacuated from Taiwan within a six month period before 2037

Jun 13, 12:58 AMJun 13, 3:59 AM

38.1%chance

20711

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

969

Will the PC version of Grand Theft Auto 6 release within six months of the console version?

Dec 5, 6:10 AMDec 13, 5:59 AM

17.22%chance

13517

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1182

930

Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development for at least six months as a result of safety evaluations?

Mar 7, 1:07 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.78%chance

11457

OptionVotes

NO

YES

260

247

Will there be an all-female crew as part of the next six missions to land on the moon?

Apr 11, 10:35 AMMay 31, 3:59 PM

13.71%chance

12322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1237

921

Double digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?

Apr 21, 12:20 AMDec 31, 1:18 AM

9.97%chance

10312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

933

What “first in North America” roller coaster model will Six Flags Magic Mountain announce for 2026? (Add answers)

Nov 19, 12:46 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3219

OptionProbability

Vekoma Inverted Motorbike

Vekoma Launched Flying Coaster (i.e. F.L.Y.)

Magic Mountain does not announce a new-to-North America coaster by 1/1/27

Other

S&S Axis

Mack Stryker

Mack Hyper

90

2

2

2

1

1

1

How many microcancers is one six pack of beer?

Aug 16, 5:06 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

10.08%chance

5169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

234

73

Will I still be using openSUSE Tumbleweed six months from now?

Aug 25, 2:00 PMFeb 25, 1:41 PM

54.75%chance

2100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

700

509

Aella will live outside the US for at least six months through 2030

Aug 24, 5:08 PMJan 3, 7:59 AM

35.04%chance

796

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

97

Will the Royal Navy plan to commission more than six Type 83 destroyers?

May 10, 9:57 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

80

62

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