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Prediction markets for SIX

Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?

Aug 31, 6:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.18%chance

101345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1486

673

Trump impeached, convicted, and removed within six months of approval below 35%?

Jun 6, 3:04 PMDec 6, 3:00 PM

21%chance

131323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1940

516

Double digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?

Apr 21, 12:20 AMNov 23, 1:18 AM

5.98%chance

111062

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1951

871

At least 50% of US citizens have been evacuated from Taiwan within a six month period before 2037

Jun 13, 12:58 AMJun 13, 3:59 AM

38.1%chance

20711

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

969

Will the PC version of Grand Theft Auto 6 release within six months of the console version?

Dec 5, 6:10 AMDec 13, 5:59 AM

15.82%chance

13617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1297

922

Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development for at least six months as a result of safety evaluations?

Mar 7, 1:07 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.78%chance

11457

OptionVotes

NO

YES

260

247

Will there be an all-female crew as part of the next six missions to land on the moon?

Apr 11, 10:35 AMMay 31, 3:59 PM

13.71%chance

12322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1237

921

Will there be an all-female crew as part of the first six missions to land on mars?

Apr 21, 10:01 AMMay 31, 3:59 PM

24.11%chance

8290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

323

192

How many microcancers is one six pack of beer?

Aug 16, 5:06 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

10.08%chance

5169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

234

73

Will any USMNT player get transferred to a Big Six Club before February 2028?

Apr 14, 5:42 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

Which club will be the first to win six premierships in the AFL era?

Sep 28, 4:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

357

OptionProbability

Hawthorn

Brisbane Lions

Geelong Cats

Other

53

29

9

9

Will the Royal Navy plan to commission more than six Type 83 destroyers?

May 10, 9:57 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

80

62

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