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Prediction markets for SIX

Double digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?

Apr 21, 12:20 AMNov 23, 1:18 AM

2.36%chance

185404

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4541

772

Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?

Aug 31, 6:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.18%chance

101345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1486

673

Trump impeached, convicted, and removed within six months of approval below 35%?

Jun 6, 3:04 PMDec 6, 3:00 PM

21%chance

131323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1940

516

Will the PC version of Grand Theft Auto 6 release within six months of the console version?

Dec 5, 6:10 AMDec 13, 5:59 AM

23.76%chance

18758

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1025

870

Will the Telethon cast perform the "Six-Seven" when they reach 67 million pesos?

Aug 16, 2:33 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

66.81%chance

10756

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1419

705

At least 50% of US citizens have been evacuated from Taiwan within a six month period before 2037

Jun 13, 12:58 AMJun 13, 3:59 AM

38.1%chance

20711

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

969

Which happens first: Human spends six months on the Moon or Human lands on Mars?

Feb 26, 9:47 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

15440

OptionProbability

Human spends six months on the Moon

Human lands on Mars

60

40

Will there be an all-female crew as part of the next six missions to land on the moon?

Apr 11, 10:35 AMMay 31, 3:59 PM

13.71%chance

12322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1237

921

Will there be an all-female crew as part of the first six missions to land on mars?

Apr 21, 10:01 AMMay 31, 3:59 PM

24.11%chance

8290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

323

192

Will the economy in 2048 be at least six times the size it is today?

Jul 18, 1:59 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

37.78%chance

10249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

149

138

How many microcancers is one six pack of beer?

Aug 16, 5:06 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

10.08%chance

5169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

234

73

Will the set of teams in the Six Nations change by 2030?

Sep 26, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:00 AM

47.89%chance

355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

103

74

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