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Prediction markets for SIX

Will Joe Weisenthal's ice maker still work in six months?

Mar 30, 10:17 PMSep 30, 10:16 PM

85.42%chance

162423

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2421

413

Will "Chameleon Flow" receive 25,000 listens on Soundcloud within six months of its release?

Jul 8, 12:58 PMMar 8, 11:25 AM

18.43%chance

101310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2104

475

Trump impeached, convicted, and removed within six months of approval below 35%?

Jun 6, 3:04 PMDec 6, 3:00 PM

18.27%chance

111115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2115

473

At least 50% of US citizens have been evacuated from Taiwan within a six month period before 2037

Jun 13, 12:58 AMJun 13, 3:59 AM

38.1%chance

20711

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

969

Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?

Aug 31, 6:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.48%chance

8614

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1291

774

Rainbow Six: Esports World Cup 2025 Winner

Jul 21, 4:13 AMAug 10, 12:59 AM

6606

OptionProbability

FURIA

G2 Esports

Team Falcons

FaZe Clan

Spacestation Gaming

w7m esports

DarkZero

Virtus.pro

Gen. G Esports

Shopify Rebellion

Team Secret

Oxygen

ENTERPRISE

Ninjas in Pyjamas

Weibo Gaming

FearX

18

12

11

8

8

7

6

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

Will the PC version of Grand Theft Auto 6 release within six months of the console version?

Dec 5, 6:10 AMDec 13, 5:59 AM

18.01%chance

12467

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1132

940

Which happens first: Human spends six months on the Moon or Human lands on Mars?

Feb 26, 9:47 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

14382

OptionProbability

Human spends six months on the Moon

Human lands on Mars

51

49

Will there be an all-female crew as part of the next six missions to land on the moon?

Apr 11, 10:35 AMMay 31, 3:59 PM

13.71%chance

12322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1237

921

Double digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?

Apr 21, 12:20 AMDec 31, 1:18 AM

9.97%chance

10312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

933

How many microcancers is one six pack of beer?

Aug 16, 5:06 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

10.08%chance

5169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

234

73

Will any of these six lost films be rediscovered before November 2026?

Dec 12, 6:53 AMNov 2, 7:59 AM

33.98%chance

529

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

94

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