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Prediction markets for SIZE

In 2068, will animal farming will be less than 10% of its size as of 2023?

Mar 25, 3:08 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

41.22%chance

627484

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1304

683

Will there be a popular fad to put a life-size plastic skeleton in the driver’s seat of a self-driving car before 2030

Jun 18, 5:06 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

28.31%chance

325229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1591

628

Effect size of taking Orexin-A on reaction speed under five hours of sleep?

Mar 21, 8:22 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

31552

OptionProbability

- 0.5 to 0

0 to 0.5

0.5 to 1

1 to 1.5

Above 1.5

- 1 to - 0.5

Below - 1

20

20

20

14

10

9

5

If OpenAI makes a transformer sized advancement in the next 5 years, will they publish an accompanying paper?

Nov 29, 12:12 AMDec 6, 7:59 AM

44.58%chance

20888

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

927

A Chinese company will surpass Waymo in total global robotaxi fleet size in 2026

Jan 2, 7:42 AMJan 9, 7:59 AM

59.67%chance

9426

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1216

822

Will any of destiny current orbiters grow their stream around the size of vaush/Hasan?

Jan 11, 7:00 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

26.78%chance

14376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

985

Will Greater Dubai overtake Greater Chicago in population size before EOY 2035?

Jul 28, 7:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.38%chance

6345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

862

Will the economy in 2048 be at least six times the size it is today?

Jul 18, 1:59 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

37.78%chance

10249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

149

138

[Metaculus] Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?

Nov 7, 6:11 PMJan 2, 8:00 AM

8%chance

6247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

428

161

Will I believe my prediction about AI enabling more SWEs to solve less lucrative problems by shrinking team sizes to have been fulfilled by EoY 2030

Jan 6, 5:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68.12%chance

7219

OptionVotes

NO

YES

184

127

Will any fund eclipse the size of the SoftBank Vision Fund by 2030?

Dec 9, 8:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

63.16%chance

14134

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

972

Will Augur (in 2030) be less than half the size it was in 2020?

Jun 17, 11:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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