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Prediction markets for SIZE

In 2068, will animal farming will be less than 10% of its size as of 2023?

Mar 25, 3:08 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

44.24%chance

627534

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1237

733

Will there be a popular fad to put a life-size plastic skeleton in the driver’s seat of a self-driving car before 2030

Jun 18, 5:06 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

28.31%chance

325229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1591

628

Will there be another EA FTX-sized scandal before 2027 and if so what will it be?

Jan 3, 1:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

342065

OptionProbability

No FTX-sized scandal

sexual harassment

OpenAI Board

Other

MIRI sex scandal/coverup ala Ziz accusations

Nepotism hire of a big name EA is found to be taking money/bribes

Will mackaskill criminal charges

Nick Bostrom racist email

76

9

6

3

2

2

1

1

If OpenAI makes a transformer sized advancement in the next 5 years, will they publish an accompanying paper?

Nov 29, 12:12 AMDec 6, 7:59 AM

44.58%chance

20888

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

927

Which countries will increase the size of their nuclear warhead stockpile in 2026?

Dec 6, 7:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8623

OptionProbability

China

India

North Korea

Pakistan

United States

Israel

France

Russia

UK

[Other]

91

57

55

50

39

37

36

31

28

25

Will the Canada-India uranium supply agreement size exceed 3.0 billion USD on April 1, 2026?

Mar 2, 6:14 PMApr 1, 6:14 PM

6.64%chance

5498

OptionVotes

YES

NO

375

27

A Chinese company will surpass Waymo in total global robotaxi fleet size in 2026

Jan 2, 7:42 AMJan 9, 7:59 AM

59.67%chance

9426

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1216

822

Will any of destiny current orbiters grow their stream around the size of vaush/Hasan?

Jan 11, 7:00 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

26.78%chance

14376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

985

Will the Canada-India uranium supply agreement size exceed 2.5 billion USD on April 1, 2026?

Mar 2, 6:14 PMApr 1, 6:14 PM

9.21%chance

3373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

307

25

Will Greater Dubai overtake Greater Chicago in population size before EOY 2035?

Jul 28, 7:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.38%chance

6345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

862

Will I believe my prediction about AI enabling more SWEs to solve less lucrative problems by shrinking team sizes to have been fulfilled by EoY 2030

Jan 6, 5:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68.12%chance

7219

OptionVotes

NO

YES

184

127

Will any fund eclipse the size of the SoftBank Vision Fund by 2030?

Dec 9, 8:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

63.16%chance

14134

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

972

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