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Prediction markets for SLE

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Dec 31, 10:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

84.61%chance

1561087545

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1045

776

Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?

Jun 28, 2:39 AMOct 28, 11:33 AM

44.86%chance

7733207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

707

Will an independent replication study confirm that poor sleep can be an early indicator of Alzheimer's disease in flies?

Oct 31, 11:03 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

72.83%chance

284419

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1637

611

Will hemp-derived CBN sleep products still be federally legal as “hemp” on Nov 12, 2026?

Nov 13, 4:55 AMNov 12, 4:47 AM

29.8%chance

51492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1535

652

Will Iranian-backed sleeper cell activity result in US casualties before 2029?

Mar 10, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29%chance

221477

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

675

Will the FDA approved a drug that claims to reduce the number of hours of sleep you need by 2040?

Nov 12, 6:45 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

17.94%chance

41460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2139

468

Does your body keep track of your sleep debt for more than 2 weeks?

Dec 14, 5:50 AMJan 21, 5:50 AM

23.94%chance

191205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1057

964

Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/2?

Mar 6, 4:48 AMJun 9, 10:09 AM

43.01%chance

9798

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

Will there be a safe and sustainable way of avoiding the need for sleep by 2030?

Jul 18, 8:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.35%chance

10586

OptionVotes

YES

NO

359

127

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

Will @martinrandall sleeping beauty market resolve before 2030?

Apr 5, 2:16 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

40.18%chance

11335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1366

958

Will humans still need sleep at the beginning of 2045?

Oct 21, 12:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

88.19%chance

7291

OptionVotes

NO

YES

268

111

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