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Prediction markets for SLE

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Dec 31, 10:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

86.45%chance

1321058005

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1027

885

Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?

Jun 28, 2:39 AMOct 28, 11:33 AM

44.86%chance

7633107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

707

Will an independent replication study confirm that poor sleep can be an early indicator of Alzheimer's disease in flies?

Oct 31, 11:03 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

79.3%chance

264319

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1958

511

Effect size of taking Orexin-A on reaction speed under five hours of sleep?

Mar 21, 8:22 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

31552

OptionProbability

- 0.5 to 0

0 to 0.5

0.5 to 1

1 to 1.5

Above 1.5

- 1 to - 0.5

Below - 1

20

20

20

14

10

9

5

Does your body keep track of your sleep debt for more than 2 weeks?

Dec 14, 5:50 AMJan 21, 5:50 AM

23.94%chance

181165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1057

964

Will there be a safe and sustainable way of avoiding the need for sleep by 2030?

Jul 18, 8:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.06%chance

9585

OptionVotes

YES

NO

378

126

Will hemp-derived CBN sleep products still be federally legal as “hemp” on Nov 12, 2026?

Nov 13, 4:55 AMNov 12, 4:47 AM

70.73%chance

3567

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1555

643

Will the FDA approved a drug that claims to reduce the number of hours of sleep you need by 2040?

Nov 12, 6:45 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

43.27%chance

3455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1145

873

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

Will an intervention be found by 2045 that reduces the amount of sleep needed in order to function by at least 25%?

Oct 21, 12:44 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

9331

OptionVotes

NO

YES

195

121

Will humans still need sleep at the beginning of 2045?

Oct 21, 12:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

88.19%chance

7291

OptionVotes

NO

YES

268

111

Will @martinrandall sleeping beauty market resolve before 2030?

Apr 5, 2:16 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

41.95%chance

11285

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1316

993

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