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Prediction markets for SLE

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Dec 31, 10:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

84%chance

1801110275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

745

Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?

Jun 28, 2:39 AMOct 28, 11:33 AM

35.86%chance

8033375

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1405

569

Will Iranian-backed sleeper cell activity result in US casualties before 2029?

Mar 10, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

241847

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1036

867

Will hemp-derived CBN sleep products still be federally legal as “hemp” on Nov 12, 2026?

Nov 13, 4:55 AMNov 12, 4:47 AM

23.58%chance

71660

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1800

556

Will the FDA approved a drug that claims to reduce the number of hours of sleep you need by 2040?

Nov 12, 6:45 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

21.13%chance

41510

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1932

518

Does your body keep track of your sleep debt for more than 2 weeks?

Dec 14, 5:50 AMJan 21, 5:50 AM

23.94%chance

191205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1057

964

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

39.72%chance

20807

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1328

683

Will there be a safe and sustainable way of avoiding the need for sleep by 2030?

Jul 18, 8:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.35%chance

10586

OptionVotes

YES

NO

359

127

Will @martinrandall sleeping beauty market resolve before 2030?

Apr 5, 2:16 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

32.59%chance

11585

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1616

816

EOY 2030, what % of MIT undergrads self-modified to reduce their sleep needs using medical tools unavailable in 2023?

Jul 11, 3:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.1%chance

9177

OptionProbability

NO

YES

273

89

Will Slenderman by added to Dead By Daylight before 2027?

May 25, 7:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.09%chance

360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

62

Exit valuation of Stellar Sleep (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:40 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

240

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

60

14

14

11

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