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Prediction markets for SLE

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Dec 31, 10:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

84%chance

1781110219

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

745

Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?

Jun 28, 2:39 AMOct 28, 11:33 AM

35.86%chance

8033375

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1405

569

Will Iranian-backed sleeper cell activity result in US casualties before 2029?

Mar 10, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

241847

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1036

867

Will hemp-derived CBN sleep products still be federally legal as “hemp” on Nov 12, 2026?

Nov 13, 4:55 AMNov 12, 4:47 AM

22.58%chance

61644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1852

540

Will the FDA approved a drug that claims to reduce the number of hours of sleep you need by 2040?

Nov 12, 6:45 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

21.13%chance

41510

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1932

518

Does your body keep track of your sleep debt for more than 2 weeks?

Dec 14, 5:50 AMJan 21, 5:50 AM

23.94%chance

191205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1057

964

Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/2?

Mar 6, 4:48 AMJun 9, 10:09 AM

43.01%chance

9798

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

Will there be a safe and sustainable way of avoiding the need for sleep by 2030?

Jul 18, 8:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.35%chance

10586

OptionVotes

YES

NO

359

127

Will @martinrandall sleeping beauty market resolve before 2030?

Apr 5, 2:16 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

32.59%chance

11585

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1616

816

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

When will Tumbles no longer need sleep? (<3 hours)

Feb 10, 1:55 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7248

OptionProbability

Before death of Tumbles

Before 2084

Before 2069

Before 2042

50

47

20

17

Quantum Sleeping Beauty problem 1/3?

Nov 4, 12:21 AMNov 5, 12:05 AM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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