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Prediction markets for SLE

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Dec 31, 10:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

85%chance

1821110393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

797

Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?

Jun 28, 2:39 AMOct 28, 11:33 AM

33.97%chance

8033425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1455

542

Will hemp-derived CBN sleep products still be federally legal as “hemp” on Nov 12, 2026?

Nov 13, 4:55 AMNov 12, 4:47 AM

88.14%chance

193218

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2726

367

Will Iranian-backed sleeper cell activity result in US casualties before 2029?

Mar 10, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.93%chance

241952

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1327

932

Will the FDA approved a drug that claims to reduce the number of hours of sleep you need by 2040?

Nov 12, 6:45 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

21.13%chance

41510

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1932

518

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

28.12%chance

251306

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1669

510

Does your body keep track of your sleep debt for more than 2 weeks?

Dec 14, 5:50 AMJan 21, 5:50 AM

23.94%chance

191205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1057

964

Will @martinrandall sleeping beauty market resolve before 2030?

Apr 5, 2:16 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

30.06%chance

11685

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1716

770

Will there be a safe and sustainable way of avoiding the need for sleep by 2030?

Jul 18, 8:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.35%chance

10586

OptionVotes

YES

NO

359

127

In 2040, will any state of the art AIs do something analogous to sleeping?

Jan 26, 8:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.81%chance

9163

OptionVotes

NO

YES

210

209

Will my blinded n-of-1 melatonin trial show improvements in my sleep?

Sep 28, 8:50 PMNov 28, 8:07 PM

41.3%chance

10127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

When will it be scientific consensus chins evolved for stomach sleeping?

Jul 23, 1:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

87.6%chance

222

OptionProbability

NO

YES

120

1

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