Slim News

Who will be the richest person at the end of 2030?

Jan 2, 11:35 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38379685

OptionProbability

Elon Musk

Other

Jensen Huang

Larry Page

Sam Altman

Jeff Bezos

Larry Ellison

Mark Zuckerberg

Bernard Arnault

Masayoshi Son

An AGI

Satoshi Nakamoto

Sergey Brin

Donald Trump

Michael Saylor

Bill Gates

Warren Buffett

Steve Ballmer

Gautam Adani

Mukesh Ambani

Brian Armstrong

Changpeng “CZ” Zhao

Tim Draper

Jack Dorsey

Winklevoss Tyler/Cameron

@Mira

Vladimir Putin

Michael Dell

Amancio Ortega

Carlos Slim Helu

Vitalik Buterin

Eric Schmidt

Dave Tepper

Ken Griffin

Eduardo Saverin

Morris Chang

Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term?

Oct 27, 10:32 PMDec 8, 11:59 PM

50.97%chance

224343

OptionVotes

YES

1020

981

Will a supernova be clearly visible from Earth before 2100 by a conscious, self-aware entity?

May 17, 3:43 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

62.84%chance

113842

OptionVotes

YES

1300

769

Gary Marcus 2029 AI predications

Jul 4, 2:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19730

OptionProbability

Some current (2025) occupations, though, will no longer exist.

Domain-specific models will still outperform general-purpose chatbots in many domains (board games, video games, protein folding, logistics, navigation, etc).

There will still be plenty of jobs in which humans experts far outclass AI.

Pure LLMs will still hallucinate (alternative architectures may do better).

Driverless taxi rides will be common, but still in limited cities, available in less than 50% of the world’s major (100k+) cities.

Pure LLMs will still make stupid errors (alternative architectures may do better).

Profit margins for LLMs will be slim.

Humanoid home robots over 5’ tall will still be demos, not in widespread release.

The LLM race will be basically a tie between China and U.S.

Will Carlos Slim (Mexican business magnate) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

May 11, 2:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.85%chance

5323

OptionVotes

YES

244

What's the best Pokemon?

May 19, 2:37 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

10171

OptionProbability

Nidoking

Other

Pikachu but in the fat older drawings where it's like chonky not the new slimmed down version

Gyarados

Sylveon

Lucario

Ampharos

Rayquaza

Giratina Origin Form

polywhirl

Charmander

Bulbasaur

Greninja

Mimikyu

Volcarona

Will Gary Marcus be accurate on at least 50% of his predictions on AI in 2029?

Jun 29, 8:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.77%chance

8148

OptionVotes

YES

115

Will @slimepriestess make it to Entropycon 12017?

Jul 8, 1:26 AMJul 15, 3:59 AM

56.42%chance

285

OptionVotes

YES

114

Slimers 'n' Co. Stock (Permanent)

May 5, 1:33 AMMay 5, 3:59 AM

130

OptionProbability

YES

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

122

Slim News

Prediction markets for Slim

Prediction markets for Slim

Prediction markets for Slim

Who will be the richest person at the end of 2030?

Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term?

Will a supernova be clearly visible from Earth before 2100 by a conscious, self-aware entity?

Gary Marcus 2029 AI predications

Will Carlos Slim (Mexican business magnate) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

What's the best Pokemon?

Will Gary Marcus be accurate on at least 50% of his predictions on AI in 2029?

Will @slimepriestess make it to Entropycon 12017?

Slimers 'n' Co. Stock (Permanent)

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

Latest stories