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Prediction markets for SMR

Will Microsoft power its data center with SMR(Small Modular Reactor) by 2030?

Sep 26, 6:44 AMJan 1, 2:59 PM

36.36%chance

382620

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1318

1115

Will Holtec submit a construction permit application to the NRC for an SMR-300 before 2026?

Jul 2, 10:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8.74%chance

32290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3231

310

Rolls Royce SMR nuclear power by 2030?

Jul 18, 6:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.1%chance

232189

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1476

836

Will Microsoft have at least one data center (partially) powered by a self-operated fission reactor before 2030?

Dec 15, 9:57 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.74%chance

221693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1726

368

Will the first SMR nuclear power plant in Poland produce energy before 2029?

Jan 31, 7:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.44%chance

161267

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1496

886

Will a small modular nuclear reactor (SMR) for electricity generation be operating in Australia by Jan 1 2035?

Aug 4, 2:58 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

23.41%chance

271172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

913

Will a Small Modular Reactor (SMR) enter commercial operation in the US before 2030?

Oct 9, 10:28 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.78%chance

10415

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1094

945

How much small modular nuclear reactor (SMR) capacity in US by 2035?

Oct 16, 5:51 PMJan 16, 4:59 AM

483

OptionProbability

1 GW to 3 GW

<1 GW

3 GW to 10 GW

10 GW to 30 GW

>=30 GW

27

23

21

19

11

10 working UK small modular reactors by 2040?

Dec 2, 1:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.07%chance

560

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

72

How much will nuclear power cost by 2040? (Price per MWe)

Dec 22, 4:04 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

355

OptionProbability

Between $500k and $1mm per MWe

Between $2mm and $3mm

Less than $500k per MWe

Between $1mm and $2mm

More than $3mm

31

24

15

15

15

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