OptionVotes
YES
NO
28379
3002
8513
118
OptionProbability
630–659
≤599
600–629
700+
660–699
38
27
21
9
6
IF ban enacted by end of 2028: OpenAI + Anthropic ≥ $4T combined on Jan 1, 2029 (N/A if no ban)
IF no ban by end of 2028: OpenAI + Anthropic ≥ $4T combined on Jan 1, 2029 (N/A if ban)
US bans open-weight frontier AI models before 2030
60
50
28
