OptionProbability
CGT union officially joins and supports the movement
Over 40 simultaneous protest locations on September 10, 2025
Over 500 arrests nationwide on September 10, 2025
FO union officially joins and supports the movement
At least 6 oil refineries or fuel depots blockaded simultaneously
Over 20% of gas stations face fuel shortages during the movement
RATP closes 5+ metro lines for a full day
CFDT union officially joins and supports the movement
Solidaires union officially joins and supports the movement
UNEF calls for university blockades nationwide
Over 10 universities blocked on a single day
Government invokes Article 49.3 on a budget bill amid the movement
National Assembly dissolved and snap legislative elections called
Conseil d'Etat suspends a protest-related policing measure
French government announces major budget policy change in response to this movement
An RN representative supports the movement
A cabinet minister resigns citing the protests
SNCF rail traffic falls below 20% of normal on at least one day during the movement
President announces a national referendum proposal in response to the movement
A curfew is imposed in at least one department
The movement will last more than 2 months (100,000 people manifesting nationwide after November 10)
A state of emergency is declared in response to the movement
Macron resigns due to the protests
International solidarity protests in over 10 foreign cities
Over 100,000 people participate in protests in Paris on September 10, 2025
Over 500,000 people protest nationwide on September 10, 2025
Over 200 injured nationwide on September 10, 2025
Over 1,000,000 cumulative participants across all protests by September 30, 2025
100
79
50
34
24
20
10
1
0
OptionVotes
NO
YES
71
69
