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Prediction markets for Social

Will "narcissistic, orgying tech nerds" solve social ills?

Oct 8, 7:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.55%chance

10129027

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1394

520

Australia reverses under-16 social media ban in 2026?

Dec 10, 3:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.98%chance

10918508

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7553

934

[ACX 2026] Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.92%chance

279359

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5202

4226

What other companies and brands will the Trump administration nationally socialize?

Aug 24, 3:22 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

346089

OptionProbability

Raytheon / RTX

Boeing

OAN

Lockheed Martin

ExxonMobil

Northrop Grumman

General Dynamics

Palantir

Chevron

Newsmax

SpaceX

CNN

TikTok

The Washington Post

27

24

23

21

20

20

20

17

15

14

10

10

7

6

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.68%chance

173564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

926

Will we see an increased premium put on offline socialization by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:13 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

39.56%chance

643010

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1456

945

Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?

Feb 2, 3:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.78%chance

162564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

835

Will UK children face a social media curfew before 2029?

Jun 9, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.3%chance

101832

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1259

795

Will social media sites have warning labels before 2028?

Jun 19, 5:53 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.01%chance

231451

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

980

Will we see an increased premium put on siloed/private online socialization by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:10 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

63.64%chance

26690

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

925

Will a major social media platform implement privacy-preserving proof of personhood by 2030?

Aug 16, 11:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55%chance

10557

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1106

905

Will ASI (if it exist and doesn’t wipe out humanity) care about people’s social relationships?

Jul 29, 12:07 AMJan 1, 1:04 AM

55.4%chance

6231

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

937

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