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Social Capital News

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.68%chance

173564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

926

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1925

695

Will a self-described 'democratic socialist' win the US presidential election in 2028?

Jul 6, 7:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.33%chance

263140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2445

409

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

By What time will Socialism become the predominant economic system?

Dec 16, 7:44 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

281059

OptionProbability

2100

Capitalism will be replaced By a different system that is not socialism

2050

Socialism will never become the prominent economic system

Far Future

Near Future

75

65

57

51

41

23

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.83%chance

141045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1519

876

Stock: Which Economic System is better: Capitalism (BUY) or Socialism (SHORT)?

Jun 4, 10:47 PMJun 5, 4:59 AM

14999

OptionProbability

NO

YES

557

199

[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

Feb 23, 8:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.25%chance

18894

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

922

Will Denmark implement a wealth tax by end of 2027?

Mar 18, 10:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.98%chance

6528

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

654

Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?

Jun 16, 3:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.4%chance

8346

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1119

894

Now Google buys Dave & Buster’s in 2036

Feb 10, 3:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.23%chance

2160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

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