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Prediction markets for Social Impact

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2031?

Jan 13, 11:11 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

92.57%chance

342218

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2019

836

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2030?

Jan 15, 9:36 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

90.81%chance

342133

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1084

959

What will be the top-3 AI labs in 2030?

Dec 19, 10:25 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

441805

OptionProbability

Anthropic

DeepMind

Other

OpenAI

Safe Superintelligence Inc

Meta

Google

xAI

Alibaba

None (No AI labs exist)

US Government

Thinking Machines

Stability AI

Tesla

Keen

CommaAI

Conjecture

Baidu

Amazon

Apple

Microsoft

Comma

NVIDIA

Midjourney

DeepSeek

High-Flyer

29

24

18

13

4

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)

Jan 18, 8:28 PMFeb 18, 3:59 AM

47.32%chance

61726

OptionVotes

YES

NO

499

284

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2027?

Jan 17, 5:33 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

75.61%chance

351625

OptionVotes

YES

NO

994

947

By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?

Jun 16, 8:47 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

17.16%chance

221493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

826

Will Half‑Life 3 be officially announced in 2026?

Dec 18, 3:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.26%chance

341457

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

97

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2029?

Jan 16, 1:24 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

85.97%chance

281437

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1260

927

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

131206

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

37

24

9

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2028?

Jan 16, 10:43 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

80.88%chance

251027

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1136

898

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?

May 17, 1:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

21.9%chance

18623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1217

848

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