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Prediction markets for Social Impact

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.68%chance

173564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

926

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2031?

Jan 13, 11:11 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

93.05%chance

362370

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2144

826

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2030?

Jan 15, 9:36 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

90.35%chance

342184

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1033

965

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)

Jan 18, 8:28 PMFeb 18, 3:59 AM

47.89%chance

71730

OptionVotes

YES

NO

495

288

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2027?

Jan 17, 5:33 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

74%chance

371670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1014

887

By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?

Jun 16, 8:47 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

17.16%chance

221493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

826

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2029?

Jan 16, 1:24 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

85.97%chance

281437

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1260

927

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

131206

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

37

24

9

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2028?

Jan 16, 10:43 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

80.88%chance

251027

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1136

898

Biotech creates a technology rivaling AI

Apr 25, 5:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.86%chance

81027

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1739

575

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?

May 17, 1:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

21.9%chance

18623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1217

848

Will a Metaverse Similar to Neal Stephenson's 'Snow Crash' Become a Mainstream Reality by 2050?

Nov 19, 1:16 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.88%chance

3122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

218

67

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