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Prediction markets for Social Impact

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.68%chance

173564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

926

When will an AI-related event dominate the mainstream news cycle for at least three consecutive days?

Jan 21, 6:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

172482

OptionProbability

2027

2030 and after. . . or we're all dead before the news comes out.

2026

2028

2029

40

17

16

16

10

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2031?

Jan 13, 11:11 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

93.05%chance

362370

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2144

826

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)

Jan 18, 8:28 PMFeb 18, 3:59 AM

50%chance

92240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

479

304

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2027?

Jan 17, 5:33 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

53.05%chance

382219

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1260

437

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2030?

Jan 15, 9:36 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

87.94%chance

352209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

990

826

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

131706

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

34

33

7

5

4

4

4

4

3

3

By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?

Jun 16, 8:47 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

16.21%chance

231543

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

876

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2029?

Jan 16, 1:24 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

82.1%chance

291487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

994

977

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2028?

Jan 16, 10:43 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

72.78%chance

251127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

798

Biotech creates a technology rivaling AI

Apr 25, 5:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.86%chance

81027

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1739

575

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?

May 17, 1:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

21.9%chance

18623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1217

848

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