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Prediction markets for Sola

will human ever live outside the solar system before the 22nd century?

Nov 7, 12:59 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

33.35%chance

2720656

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6224

5524

Will at least 80 percent of solar modules deployed in the US in 2026 be manufactured in the US?

Aug 11, 3:53 AMOct 1, 3:59 AM

21.48%chance

5510519

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18716

5669

Cybertruck drives on moon or other solar planetary body

Mar 28, 3:32 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.09%chance

375095

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1016

919

Will a utility-scale solar PPA be made for <$10/MWh by the end of 2026?

Jul 9, 6:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.53%chance

121779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1154

566

Will Flannery Associates' proposed city in Solano County be established and inhabited before 2030?

Aug 26, 10:35 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.72%chance

161718

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1760

347

Will Earth have space-based solar power at scale by 2060?

Aug 29, 10:03 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

25.63%chance

371238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1057

946

Will the U.S. attempt a large scale Solar Radiation Modification geoengineering project before 2030?

Jul 28, 1:47 PMDec 22, 4:59 AM

22.56%chance

19967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

957

Will solar geoengineering techniques be deployed at any significant scale by 2030? [details in description]

Oct 30, 3:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

59.31%chance

20881

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

870

Is there extraterrestrial life within 10 light years from the solar system?

Feb 11, 3:35 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.71%chance

10359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

92

Will there be a functional space-based solar power plant before 2045?

Nov 11, 4:05 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

41.79%chance

20180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

987

Will Claudia Sheinbaum publicly advocate for Solar Geoengineering during her term as president of Mexico?

Oct 22, 10:49 AMDec 2, 7:59 AM

56.25%chance

6134

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

882

Exit valuation of Sola (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

280

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

61

17

17

6

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