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Prediction markets for Solv

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Sep 29, 2:39 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

20%chance

2602040008

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2055

1670

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

88.21%chance

317320623

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3032

293

Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?

Sep 8, 10:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.78%chance

543313935

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6274

2983

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.4%chance

185309762

OptionVotes

NO

YES

112537

28904

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?

Oct 1, 3:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

98%chance

363215164

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5090

1

All Millennium Prize Problems solved before 2030?

Sep 8, 11:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

158109278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2000

500

Will all Millennium prize problems be solved (or proved unsolvable) by 2040?

Mar 14, 9:28 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

73.55%chance

11680849

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1578

162

Will an unsolved millenium prize problem be solved by AI by the end of 2028

Aug 6, 7:13 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

97.6%chance

17960978

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3196

25

Will at least one of the remaining Millenium Problems be solved before 2030?

Feb 28, 3:09 PMDec 31, 9:01 PM

96.99%chance

17237035

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5157

105

Will all Millennium prize problems be solved (or proved unsolvable) by 2030?

Mar 14, 9:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

25%chance

7129217

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1088

322

Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?

Mar 16, 7:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.07%chance

9318844

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4716

4417

Will anyone solve my partner's depression before 2027? [M$1,000,000 bounty]

Sep 29, 5:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.73%chance

4814501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19554

5114

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