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Prediction markets for Solv

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Sep 29, 2:39 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

10%chance

2312004434

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3821

1379

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

46.08%chance

242199075

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1220

1032

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.49%chance

92161256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112159

17112

Will Daniel Litt win his $25,000 bet that David Budden will not solve the Hodge conjecture?

Dec 20, 9:06 PMDec 20, 9:05 PM

98.25%chance

107107924

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7503

133

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?

Oct 1, 3:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34%chance

22099300

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4814

116

Will Navier-Stokes be solved with the help of Google or Alphabet scientists by the end of 2027?

Sep 24, 1:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.8%chance

11862645

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11184

10881

Will all 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 8:20 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

26.23%chance

9231249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

969

966

Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?

Mar 16, 7:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.36%chance

8918719

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4825

4292

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2035?

Oct 11, 5:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

10110673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3917

1923

Will anyone solve my partner's depression before 2027? [M$1,000,000 bounty]

Sep 29, 5:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.23%chance

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17681

5656

Will all Millennium prize problems be solved (or proved unsolvable) by 2030?

Mar 14, 9:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

3.72%chance

539057

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2286

897

In what year will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?

Sep 30, 7:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

513749

OptionProbability

2030-2049

2025-2029

2050-2074

2075-2099

Other

55

20

19

5

1

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